YOU can understand why La Bague Au Roi is favourite for this afternoon’s Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase.
Warren Greatrex’s mare was dynamite last term. She won her first four chases, she battled on well to get the better of subsequent RSA Chase winner Topofthegame in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Chase over three miles at Kempton at Christmas, and she only gave best to Kalashnikov in the Grade 1 Manifesto Novices’ Chase at Aintree on her final run of the season.
She has the potential to progress again this season, as a second-season chaser, and she gets the 7lb mares’ allowance, but she is short, and she only receives that 7lb mares’ allowance from Aso, to whom she is rated 17lb inferior in official terms.
Aso looks fairly well exposed on the face of it, and he is unproven over three miles, but he has plenty in hand on ratings and, if he were to just run to his rating today, that could be good enough to win.
There is a good chance that he can run to his rating too. Three miles on soft ground is admittedly an unknown. Venetia Williams’ horse has been beaten in both his attempts at three miles or more. But he stays two and a half miles well, and he stayed two miles and five and a half furlongs well to win a graduation chase at Market Rasen in January 2016.
Also, he hasn’t tried three miles since April 2017, and he stayed on well enough over two and a half miles on three occasions last season to suggest that it was worth trying him again over three. Although the ground will be soft today, Wetherby’s three miles is a flat three miles.
He goes very well at Cheltenham, but he has proven in the past that he can also operate on flat tracks. And Venetia Williams had a winner at Aintree on Sunday, Burtons Well in the veterans’ chase. If Aso can get into a nice rhythm towards the head of the market early on, which he should be able to do, then he could run a big race.
Elegant Escape is a danger, and Top Ville Ben is two for two over fences at Wetherby, over this course and distance but, at the prices, Aso is the bet.
Sodexo at Ascot
It will be very interesting to see how Vinndication goes in the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot, on his first run of the season, his first since a wind operation and his first in a tongue-tie. Kim Bailey’s horse hasn’t raced over three miles yet, but he races as if he will progress for the step up to this trip, and for soft ground, and for a return to a right-handed track. He has the potential to go beyond the mark of 150 off which he races today.
But he is fashionable and he is short and, at almost twice his odds, Mister Malarky is a more attractive betting proposition.
Colin Tizzard’s horse is progressive himself. He won three of his six chases last season as a novice, and he wasn’t disgraced in the RSA Chase when he finished fourth behind three high class young chasers in Topofthegame, Santini and Delta Work.
Significantly, he probably put up the best performance of his life when he won the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Chase over today’s course and distance last February, when he had Top Ville Ben well behind him.
Ascot’s fences are tricky, and a proven ability over them is an obvious asset to take back to Ascot. He idled when he got to the front that day, he was pricking his ears on the run-in, and he probably won with more in hand than the bare winning margin.
The fast pace that this big field should generate will suit him well, he stays three miles well, and he is another who has the potential to go beyond his handicap rating this season as a staying chaser. He is only six and he has raced just six times over fences. As long as 16 or more stand their ground, he is an each-way bet.
Recommended:
Aso, 1 point win, 3.40 Wetherby, 6/1 (generally)
Mister Malarky, 1 point each-way, 3.20 Ascot, 7/1 (generally)