Donn McClean

YOU are allowed to back two horses in the Grand National. If you are intent on getting involved, you probably should back two. At least two. Just in case, you know, one of them goes at the first.

Here’s the first: Anibale Fly. There isn’t any rocket science to the case for Anibale Fly. He is the best-handicapped horse in the race on official ratings, and that is a good starting point.

J.P. McManus’ horse ran a big race in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last month. He never really threatened Native River or Might Bite, but he stayed on well from the top of the home straight over the last two fences to take third place.

He handled the soft ground well at Cheltenham, and he finished off his race well, all of which augurs well for the test that this afternoon’s race will present.

The handicapper raised him by 9lbs for that run to a mark of 168, but the Grand National is obviously a (very) early-closing race, so he gets to race today off his old mark of 159. That gives him a big chance.

There are imponderables. There is the absolute weight that he will carry for starters, 11st 8lb now since the weights have gone up by 1lb upon Minella Rocco’s defection. That is a big weight for the National.

But three of the last eight winners have carried 11st 5lb or more, and six of the last 13 have carried 11st or more. It is not an insurmountable burden, and it is mitigated by the fact that he is 9lbs well-in.

SLIGHT WORRY

There is also the slight worry about the fact that he had a hard race in the Gold Cup. However, there is a week more between the Gold Cup and the Grand National this year than there usually is, it is 29 days since the Gold Cup now.

Also, Might Bite bounced around Aintree on Thursday, and you would have said that Nicky Henderson’s horse finished off his race like a tired horse in the Gold Cup, whereas Anibale Fly finished off strongly up the hill.

The Tony Martin-trained gelding is a classy performer, he finished second in a Drinmore Chase and in a Growise Chase as a novice last season, and he was an impressive winner of the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown last Christmas. He is only eight, he has raced just 11 times over fences, so he has the potential to progress further, and he shapes like a stayer who could improve again for the step up to an extreme trip.

We know that Tony Martin is adept at getting a horse ready for a big day, and Anibale Fly will have Barry Geraghty for company. He is 12/1 in places, but even the 10/1 and 11/1 look like value.

SECOND CHOICE

Here’s the second choice: Alpha Des Obeaux. The Gigginstown House horse is a little more speculative, but he has plenty in his favour too.

He is not obviously ahead of the handicapper, but he is a classy performer and he is another young horse who is relatively lightly-raced over fences and who therefore has potential for more.

The Mouse Morris-trained gelding would have finished second to Thistlecrack in the Sefton Hurdle at the Grand National meeting in 2015 had he not fallen at the final flight, so we know that he can operate at the track, and he did finish second to the same Thistlecrack in the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham in 2016.

He ran a cracker on his debut this season to finish second to the seriously well-handicapped Total Recall in the JT McNamara Munster National at Limerick in October. Total Recall ran out an impressive winner, but the pair of them were well clear, they had it between them from the top of the home straight, and Alpha Des Obeaux finished well clear of the third horse.

Total Recall went on to win the Hennessy next time off an 18lb higher mark, and Alpha Des Obeax meets Willie Mullins’ horse on 17lb better terms today. That gives him a chance of reversing placings, and he is available at three times Total Recall’s price.

As well as that, the Saddler Maker gelding put up a big performance to win the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil Chase in November, a race that was run on soft ground and over two and a half miles, a trip that was surely shorter than ideal. He beat fellow Gigginstown horses A Toi Phil and Balko Des Flos into second and third places respectively that day, and that form has obviously been enhanced since.

Alpha Des Obeaux has been beaten four times since then, but all four races were in Grade 1 or 2 company. He will be racing in handicap company today for the first time since the Munster National.

Mouse Morris knows how to win the Grand National – he did it with Rule The World just two years ago – and Rachael Blackmore is a very good rider. He goes well on good ground, but four of his best five runs have been on soft or heavy ground, so he should be fine with testing conditions. He could out-run his odds of 40/1 by a fair way.

RECOMMENDED

ANIBALE FLY, 1 point each-way, 11/1 (generally)

ALPHA DES OBEAUX, 1 point each-way, 40/1 (generally)