IT is going to be fascinating to see how today’s Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle pans out. Capitaine looked very good in making all at Ascot last time, Finian’s Oscar won his point-to-point by eight lengths and was bought by his current owner for lots of money before he won his maiden hurdle at Hereford, and Celestial Path finished third in a Racing Post Trophy and fifth in a Guineas.

It’s never easy, trying to line up Hereford maiden hurdle form with classic form.

Capitaine is the right favourite, he will probably take plenty of beating in his fourth-time hood, as long as the ground does not come up as testing as it did when he was beaten at Haydock in November. There are plenty of impossible-to-knows, however, and this is probably a race for watching with an eye on the future.

Yorkhill beat O O Seven and Agrapart in the race last year, and L’Ami Serge won it is 2015, so it has a strong recent history.

The Veterans’ Chase has a much better shape to it from a betting perspective, with four places, 19 runners, and none of them priced up at shorter than 6/1.

Dynaste deserves his place at the top of the market. He is a classy horse, a Ryanair Chase winner, he didn’t run badly on his debut this season in the Charlie Hall Chase, and the handicapper has dropped him 5lb since his last run at Kelso, which leaves him in a mark of 145, a not inconsiderable 24lb lower than his peak.

The negative is that, David Pipe’s excellent record in veterans’ races notwithstanding, he was really disappointing in that Kelso race. He appears to be a pale shadow of his former self, and, remarkably, he hasn’t won since he won that Ryanair Chase in March 2014. Quotes of 6/1 and 7/1 are no better than fair.

Gas Line Boy ran out a really easy winner of that Kelso race, and he is a big player in today’s contest. The main negative is that he was raised 9lb for that performance, which takes him up to a mark of 145, which is just 2lb lower than his peak. It is asking a lot for an 11-year-old to be up to his highest-ever mark, to be as good as he has ever been, after 23 races.

Also, he is up in trip, from two miles and six furlongs to three miles, and he had things all to himself up front at Kelso. He may face competition for the early lead today.

Aerial was beaten 13 lengths by Gas Line Boy that day, but there are reasons for believing that Paul Nicholls’ horse could get a lot closer today, and he is a bigger price than his conqueror. He could be worth backing at 10/1.

The most obvious reason for believing that he can turn around the form is the turnaround in the weights: Aerial is 10lb better off with Ian Williams’ horse for a 13-length beating, and that alone gives him a real chance.

Two other elements could see improvement forthcoming from Aerial. Firstly, he will appreciate the step up to three miles. He won over three miles as a novice hurdler and he won over three miles, three furlongs on his debut this season, and there was a sense that it all happened a little quickly for him at Kelso.

And secondly, he jumped to his right at Kelso, so he should be happier back on a right-handed track today. He ran good races at Ludlow and Perth during the summer, and his record going right-handed over fences reads 12112F. And the F was at the third last fence when he was travelling like a likely winner.

He stays well, but he is not short of pace, as he proved when he won three times over two and a half miles during his first and second seasons in Britain.

He was off the track for almost a year and a half, until he returned at Fontwell in November, when he stayed on well to win over three miles , three furlongs on soft ground off a mark of 127. His second run back was in that race at Kelso, which came up just three weeks after his return, when he had to have had a hard race.

He has had a nice break since then, he has been off for almost five weeks and, as a bonus, the handicapper has dropped him by 1lb, down to a mark of 134, which is 21lb lower than his peak.

His rider, Jordan Williams, does not have much experience - he has ridden just five winners over jumps - but he gave Aerial a nice ride at Fontwell and he did nothing wrong at Kelso. He obviously knows the horse well, he claims a useful 7lb, and the champion trainer obviously thinks enough of him to allow him retain the ride.

Astracad is interesting at a big price, despite the fact that he is unproven over the trip, and Aachen would get interesting if the rains arrived, but, in a good each-way race, the 10/1 that is generally available about Aerial looks more than fair.

There are several potentially progressive mares in the listed mares’ hurdle earlier on the day, Lifeboat Mona and Briery Queen among them, but Midnight Jazz appears to be a generally underrated mare, and it looks as if the market has underrated her again in putting her in at 5/1.

Ben Case’s mare has run 15 times, she is not obviously unexposed, but she continues to progress. Nine of her last 10 runs have represented a step up on what she had done before.

On her penultimate run, she ran a cracker to finish second to Stephanie Frances in a listed mares’ hurdle at Wetherby at the end of October, when she wasn’t suited by the sedate early pace over the minimum trip.

Left off from then until early December, she returned at Doncaster over a more suitable two and a half miles and made just about all the running to beat the boys in a handicap hurdle off a mark of 136.

Her new rating of 140 makes her the joint-second top-rated mare in this race, 2lb behind Desert Queen, and, while her fellow 140-rated rival Lifeboat Mona is more lightly-raced, it is reasonable to expect that Midnight Jazz can step up again.

It looks like this intermediate trip is her optimum, and she should be happy either leading or taking a lead from other potential pace-setter Desert Queen. She goes well on goodish ground, but she can also handle easier conditions, and she could go close.

RECOMMENDED

1 point each-way, Aerial, 10/1 (generally)

1 point win, Midnight Jazz, 5/1 (generally)