Donn McClean

IT IS a fascinating Lockinge Stakes at Newbury today, a fascinating Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes, featuring, as it does, a clash of the generations, as the Lockinge Stakes often does. Only it’s a clash of the four-year-olds and the (even) older horses, as opposed to the classic generation and their elders, the four-year-olds and up. We have to wait until the Eclipse for that.

We had these generational clashes over a mile last year, only last year everybody was a year younger. Ribchester and Galileo Gold and Somehow and Aclaim represented the three-year-olds, the classic generation, while Lightning Spear and the others represented the elders. And last year, it was the classic generation that held sway.

In 2016, three-year-olds filled the 1-2-3 in the Sussex Stakes, the 1-4-5 in the Prix Jacques Le Marois, the 1-2-4-5-6 in the QE2. As well as that, four-year-olds have won eight of the last 10 renewals of the Lockinge Stakes, so it makes sense that this year’s four-year-olds dominate the market for this afternoon’s feature contest.

Galileo Gold won the Guineas and the St James’s Palace Stakes (confined to three-year-olds) and split fellow three-year-olds The Gurkha and Ribchester in the Sussex Stakes (open to older horses).

Ribchester won the Prix Jacques Le Marois and finished second to fellow three-year-old Minding in the QE2. Both are big players this afternoon. However, Lightning Spear was not far behind them last year, and he could get even closer this afternoon.

UNUSUAL

Lightning Spear is a six-year-old, and six-year-olds have a poor record in the Lockinge (no winners and just one place from nine runners in the last decade), but Lightning Spear is an unusual six-year-old, in that he is lightly-raced relative to his age.

He has had 13 races, just three more than Ribchester, just two more than Galileo Gold.

More than that, however, he appeared to be better than ever at the end of last season as a five-year-old. Always highly regarded by Qatar Racing, he ran a cracker on his debut last season to finish a close-up third behind American mare Tepin and last year’s Lockinge winner Belardo in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot.

He tried to come from very far back in the Sussex Stakes, and he never really got into the race in the Prix Jacques Le Marois, but he bounced back from that to land the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood in August.

It was his last run of the season, however, in the QE2, that marks David Simcock’s horse down as a Group 1 winner in waiting. He was held up that day in the QE2, as he usually is, but he raced in the near-side group, while Minding and Ribchester raced prominently in the far side group.

He picked up nicely when Oisin Murphy asked him to, but he had to do a lot of running just to get close to Minding and Ribchester, and he conceded a little ground by drifting over towards them, towards the far side. It was not surprising that his run flattened out inside the final furlong, but he still finished an excellent third behind the brilliant Minding, just a length behind runner-up Ribchester.

HIGH STANDARD

Ribchester sets a high standard today, but Lightning Spear only has a length to find on him on their QE2 run, when he didn’t have the run of the race, and he does not have to concede the 3lb age allowance today. He should probably be closer to Richard Fahey’s horse in the betting than he is, and he looks over-priced at 5/1.

Fahey could also be involved in the London Gold Cup with Andok, who could go well at a decent price.

Winner of his first two races last season as a two-year-old, his maiden and a Doncaster nursery off a mark of 80, both over seven furlongs, he rounded off his season with a good run in defeat when he finished second to Masham Star back at Doncaster. That Mark Johnston horse then went and won another nursery at Newcastle in November off a mark of 95, 8lb higher than the mark off which he beat Andok, and he is now rated 101, a stone higher.

Andok gets to race off a mark of 87 today, just 2lb higher than his Doncaster mark, and that could be a mark that under-rates his ability. Also, he shaped nicely on his only run to date this season, in a good one-mile handicap at Newmarket on Guineas weekend.

Held up that day, he came under pressure early, but he kept finding on the far side. He responded well to pressure and he ran on all the way to the line to finish fifth behind Ronald R, just conceding fourth place on the line.

He should improve for his seasonal debut, and he has lots of scope for progression anyway, having run just four times in his life.

Also, he raced at Newmarket as if he could benefit from a greater stamina test, so the step up to 10 furlongs today could bring about significant improvement.

This is a race that is full of potential improvers, but Andok is one of the more interesting potential improvers, and he looks over-priced at 14/1.

RECOMMENDED:

LIGHTNING SPEAR, 5/1 (generally) 1 point win

ANDOK, 5/1 (generally) 1 point win