Donn McClean

THE draw is important at Beverley. Generally, low is good, high is bad. Logic dictates that it should be so too. The straight five at Beverley is not straight. The shortest route is along the inside rail.

Logic hypothesises that the draw should be important in the Beverley Bullet, and history backs up the hypothesis. Eight of the last 10 winners of the Bullet were drawn four or lower, three were drawn one, two were drawn two. It is a small sample size, but half the winners of the last 10 years were drawn in one of the lowest two stalls.

Mirza has drawn stall one today, and that enhances his chance, probably making it greater than that reflected by odds of around 10/1.

Rae Guest’s horse is 10, but he is in top form this season. Winner of a handicap at Leicester on his penultimate run last season off a mark of 104, he ran encouragingly on his debut this term at Musselburgh to finish a close fifth behind Line Of Reason, and he stepped forward from that to chase home Battaash next time at Sandown.

He finished three and a half lengths behind the winner that day, but he finished nicely ahead of the rest of his rivals, and subsequent events confirmed that he put up a big performance in so doing, in getting as close as he did to Sheikh Hamdan’s top-class young sprinter.

Mirza ran disappointingly last time in the Shergar Cup Sprint at Ascot, so you have to forgive him that, but you can. He raced up with a fast pace that day in a race in which the hold-up horses dominated.

If he had not run in the Shergar Cup, he would probably be significantly shorter in the market today than he is.

The Oasis Dream gelding has run just once at Beverley, he ran a cracker to finish second in the Beverley Bullet in 2014, finishing well and just failing by a neck to catch Pearl Secret. So we know that he can operate at the track.

His draw in stall one should allow him get the perfect sit behind trail-blazer Take Cover, who is set to emerge from stall two. Take Cover is a danger, there is a chance that he will get out in front from stall two and stay there until very close to the winning line. The three Paul Midgley horses are also dangers from five, six and seven, and Kimberella is a danger, an unlucky third in the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle on Northumberland Plate day, winner of a listed race at Chester on his penultimate run, well drawn in stall four and the highest-rated horse in the race.

However, Richard Fahey’s horse is rated just 6lb superior to Mirza and he has to concede 3lb to him. Add that to Mirza’s good draw, his form this year and his good course form, and the value may lie with Rae Guest’s horse.

ATALANTA STAKES

Aljazzi sets a fair standard in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes at Sandown. Marco Botti’s filly ran a cracker to finish second to Qemah in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot last time, when she had to do a lot of her running away from the favoured stands rail.

At the time, it appeared as if she might not have got due recognition for that run, a lot of the post-race focus appeared to be on the luckless path that Usherette endured close to the stands rail. However, the handicapper raised Aljazzi’s rating by 11lb to a mark of 112. She is rated 4lb superior to the next highest-rated filly in today’s race, and she is short in the market as a result.

That Duke of Cambridge Stakes run was a step up on anything else that the Shamardal filly had done in her previous eight races, and she has to reproduce it now, around a bend, away from Ascot, on easier ground. She may well be able to do that, but she is priced up as if she will.

Nathra could represent a little bit of value against Aljazzi. Winner of the Nell Gwyn Stakes last year and second in the French 1000 Guineas, John Gosden’s filly has run just twice this season to date.

She could only finish sixth on her return in a listed race run over the round mile at Ascot on King George weekend behind On Her Toes, but that was her seasonal debut, and she didn’t run brilliantly either in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot last year on her only previous run at Ascot, also over the round mile.

She stepped forward from that last time when she finished third behind Massaat and Librisa Breeze in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury. She kept on well that day to get to within two lengths of the talented winner, and there is every chance that she can step forward again from that.

The second highest rated filly in today’s race, the Iffraaj filly only has 4lb to find on official ratings with Aljazzi and, proven on easy ground, there is every chance that she can find that level of improvement.

RECOMMENDED

MIRZA, 1 point win, 10/1 (generally)

NATHRA, 1 point win, 9/2 (generally)