IF the ground at Newbury gets softer then Midnight Tune has a great chance of defying top-weight in the feature race today.

She has won three of her five starts so far this season, including a Grade 2 on heavy ground at Sandown last month. She has only really disappointed once in what has otherwise been a great season.

She lines up for another Grade 2, the EBF & TBA Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle Finale, and, as you’d expect for a £40,000, it is a strong race.

She does have to carry a lot of weight in 11st 4lb, while the bottom-weights are only carrying 10st 4lb. It’s a lot to give away and there are some unexposed horses lining up.

It’s a case of the softer the better for her. There is some rain forecast and if we get close to heavy, then we’ll be in a good place and will level the playing field for us.

Whatever happens here, keep an eye on her next season, as she should really excel when she goes over fences.

BETTER GROUND

While any rain would boost Midnight Tune’s chance, it would go against Plaisir D’Amour in the Doom Bar Handicap Chase.

We thought she would run a big race in the BetVictor Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November. It was the obvious race to go for but the going never suited her. She’s had to wait for better ground so hasn’t run since.

The chase track usually holds up better than the hurdles’, so hopefully it will be okay for her. She has some very good form in the book, having won the listed mares’ race at Cheltenham in April. Venetia Williams has had three winners from her last 12 runners which bodes well too.

Earlier on the card, I partner Coologue in the Insure With Be Wiser Handicap Chase. I have never ridden him before but he won a decent race at Cheltenham 18 months ago and has some decent form in the book.

His recent form has not stacked up but Charlie Longsdon is going along very nicely at the moment and if he can recapture his old form, he would have an obvious chance.

ASCOT

I’m at Ascot tomorrow, when Knight Destroyer makes a quick reappearance in the Sport Relief/GBR Billion Steps Challenge Juvenile Handicap Hurdle after falling at the third in the Fred Winter.

We fancied him to run well at Cheltenham so it was a real shame he fell, but he’s okay and I am okay and we go again.

QUESTION MARK

There is one question mark in going right-handed. He was beaten by Nube Negra at Market Rasen at long odds-on and we felt that it might have been a problem then.

However, in hindsight it wasn’t a bad run at all given Nube Negra went on to finish third at the Cheltenham Festival.

Sunset Showdown runs in the ROA/Racing Post Owners Jackpot Maiden Hurdle.

He ran well to finish second on his hurdling debut, but it’s difficult to know the quality of the opposition and Nicky Henderson’s, Colonial Dreams, could be hard to beat.

I haven’t had too many 66/1 winners, but Kapga De Lily went in at those odds at Haydock. If you backed her, then well done and presumably you were taking a chance on something happening to the front two in the betting – which is exactly what happened!

The 1/4 favourite, Midnight Shadow, was led astray by the second favourite, Keyboard Gangster, with both almost running out. The favourite unseated in the process and Keyboard Gangster made up a vast amount of ground to re-join myself and the only other horse Think Ahead, but faded away soon after.

It meant that I got a lovely tow in behind the leader and, in fairness, she did quicken very nicely at the end.

We did think she had some talent ahead of her debut at Carlisle but she was very green and inexperienced that day. She will have learnt a lot from this win and will win more races.

Finally, I’ll be watching the flat season curtain raiser with interest to see how the Cambridgeshire winner, Dolphin Vista, gets on. I rode him at Fakenham, when he finished second on his hurdles debut in January.

He ran fine that day and jumped well, but for a horse of that class, you really want to be running and winning at places like Cheltenham and Aintree to make it pay, given the prize money for a horse like him is vastly superior on the flat. So he is back on the flat now and sometimes a run over hurdles can really sharpen up a flat horse.