Aintree Saturday
1.15 William Hill BOG Handicap Chase 1m 7f 176yd
Javert Allen was higher in the weights when fourth in this corresponding contest a year ago and he went on to be an excellent second to Ryan’s Rocket at Newbury. That rival is now rated 10lb higher and Javert Allen is able to race off 2lb lower after a couple of lesser efforts in the spring.
He can be forgiven the latest of those when caught on the back foot in the Red Rum Chase here in April and unable to adopt his customary positive role. His overall record between October and December reads 1221142 and he looks a cracking bet to make a winning return having been handed a lifeline by the assessor.
1.45 William Hill Molyneux Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 209yd
It’s unfortunate that Mydaddypaddy, who was all the rage for the Supreme this time last year only to get turned over in the Formby Hurdle over course and distance and ran a blinder at Cheltenham in March, is an absenttee.
Alexei also ran a blinder in the Champion Hurdle, and I’d have to rate that run behind Lossiemouth highly while he then acquitted himself just as well when beaten three and three-quarter lengths by Brighterdaysahead in the Aintree Hurdle on his final outing last term. He looks a strong stayer.
2.25 Boodles Rising Stars
Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
2m 3f 200yd
Klimt Madrik didn’t do much for the form of Talk To The Man’s winning chase debut when beaten at Aintree on Friday, and I fancy the rating Timeform have given the Dan Skelton novice is a little generous. Paul Nicholls trained both Talk To The Man and No Drama This End last season and there is little doubt he considered Challow Hurdle winner No Drama This End the better of the pair, with his only defeat coming when running a lifeless race at Cheltenham in March.
It should be noted that the horse he beat in the Challow was Klimt Madrik, but Nicholls was strangely keen to compare No Drama This End to Denman, and the son of Walk In The Park has taken on totemic significance in the depleted Ditcheat flock.
Nicholls will be smarting having lost the De La Hay horses to his former assistant, and given that, he will see victory here as particularly important, so is sure to leave no stone unturned to get one over on the rampant Skelton.
3.00 Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) 3m 149yd
Our Guide is capable of winning well if avoiding errors but his jumping is still too scrappy to be lumping on him at fairly short odds and I’d prefer to be more circumspect.
Lihyan has no pretentions to be better than this, but was running well at this time last year, with his best efforts when third in a course-and-distance handicap and a Pertemps qualifier at Newbury, while he took advantage of a good opportunity to win at the latter track in March rather that try his hand in the final of this series.
He has now dropped below his last winning mark and can be forgiven an unplaced effort at Cheltenham on return from absence last time. A flat track suits him better and he can make the frame at least here with the benefit of that pipe-opener.
3.35 William Hill Lucky Stable Handicap Chase 2m 3f 200yd
Bluey has all the right attributes for this, being a clean-winded mare with a good record fresh and a sound jumper of fences.
She will appreciate the good ground at Aintree and is likely to get an attacking ride which seemed the tactics to use based on Friday’s results, with Off The Jury, Royal Infantry and Rubaud up with the pace from the off when scoring over fences. Bluey could get loose on the lead here with only Josh The Boss among the opposition likely to take her on early, and the daughter of Affinisea is taken to outjump her rivals from flagfall.
Doncaster Saturday
2.10 Virgin Bet Wentworth Stakes (Listed) 6f 2yd
High numbers can do well at Doncaster when the mud is flying, as it often is for this fixture, but that doesn’t look likely for all the ground will be yielding, and I’d prefer to be with those in single figures. Copacabana Sands hasn’t yet clicked for Andrew Balding but she very much caught the eye when leading until inside the final furlong in the Sceptre Stakes here at the Leger meeting, and a drop to six furlongs looks overdue for a filly who tends to travel well over further but tends to flatten out late.
On that front, the fitting of a tongue-tie suggests her breathing may be a minor issue, and if the aid helps her at all, she looks capable of a bold show in conditions she handled well in Ireland.
Should the high numbers not be at a disadvantage, I can see Poatan running a big race, but previous comments about him being next season’s horse still apply and he may be even better dropped back to five furlongs given how much speed he showed in the British Champions Sprint at Ascot. I’ll be keeping him onside.
2.45 Virgin Bet Irish EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (Listed)
1m 2f 43yd
This contest, falling as it does so late in the turf season, can throw up the odd headscratcher of a result. Half of the last 16 winners came from double-digit stalls, so there is no need to fret over a wide berth, and Revoir looks the safest choice given her solid record at this level.
Runner-up five times from eight outings in listed company, she deserves to get her head in front. She rather idled away a winning opportunity in a San Siro Group 3 last time and the key to her is probably delaying her final challenge for as long as possible.
Rossa Ryan knows what went wrong last time, and will no doubt be a little wise to Revoir’s quirks now. If he can delay her run a little longer here, she can end that frustrating run.
3.25 Virgin Bet November
Handicap 1m 3f 197yd
I must admit to being intrigued by Atherstone Warrior, who was a good third in this race last year in the mud having won on soft ground at Sandown and Newbury in his previous runs. He returned with a career best effort here at the Lincoln meeting, just failing to get up and splitting rivals who have risen sharply in the handicap since.
That makes him look very well treated, but he officially left the Gary & Josh Moore stable in July and has only come back into training a fortnight ago, still in the same ownership but now trained by Mark Hoad.
The fortnight is the bit that intrigues me, as he must have been with a licenced trainer for at least 14 days in order to be qualified to run. As such, this is either a rush job on a horse who has had a setback, or it’s a brilliant smokescreen for a horse who has been kept ticking over specifically with a repeat bid for this race in mind.
If he did have a setback then he would look a 100/1 shot for this, but money has kept coming for him at much shorter odds and I suspect we are looking at an old-fashioned gamble.
If he’s in the same form as he was here in the spring, I would give him an excellent chance and am happy to row in with the idea that he’s being very cleverly campaigned.
Recommended
Javert Allen 1.15 Aintree – 1pt win @ 4/1 (Bet 365, Hills; 7/2 general)
Bluey 3.35 Aintree – 1pt e/w @ 17/2 (general – 4 places)
Copacabana Sands 2.10 Doncaster – 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (Bet365, Hills, Paddy Power – 4 places)
Revoir 2.45 Doncaster – 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (Paddy Power; 6/1 general – 4 places)
Atherstone Warrior 3.25 Doncaster – 2pts win @ 10/1 (general)