Henry Dwyer fears ground conditions may have turned against Asfoora as she prepares to bring the curtain down on her glittering career in the Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes at York on Friday.
The Australian mare flew up the Knavesmire to secure the second of her three Group 1 victories on European soil 12 months ago, but rain during the week means the York turf will be riding considerably slower for the defence of her title.
She looked bound for the breeding shed after finishing down the field on her first two starts of the current campaign, but a resurgent performance when a close-up fourth at Goodwood prompted connections to delay her return flight to roll the dice one more time on Friday.
“If it was on day one I would be happy enough with a soft track, but probably not on day three when they have been racing on it,” said Dwyer. “She doesn’t mind a soft track, but it is not ideal. It is hard to know.
“She is in good nick. She worked on the July course the other morning and she worked really well. The draw looks reasonably suitable (stall three) with a few speed horses around her, so hopefully she will get a nice trail into the race and have every chance.
“She is heading to the breeding sheds and even with a spectacular win I’d say we are still on that path. She doesn’t really have the option. If she was to race again she would miss the breeding season and that is not really an option.”
The rain-softened ground must also be seen as a negative for American challenger Bacio.
The three-year-old blitzed his rivals in the Palace of Holyroodhouse at Royal Ascot and now bids to provide Wesley Ward with an elusive first Nunthorpe success, having previously picked up the silver medal with both Acapulco (2015) and Lady Aurelia (2017).
Ward said: “We don’t want anyone doing any more rain dances, that’s for sure!
“We don’t run on soft turf in America so who knows, maybe he’ll like it, but it’s a question mark.
“The horse is in really good shape. He had a workout over the track with Rowan Scott riding him and everybody was very happy.
“We’re feeling good, we’re excited and it’s all over bar the shouting and the hollering now.”
French hopes are carried by Francis-Henri Graffard’s Rayevka, who was last seen finishing a head second to reopposing Mission Central – trained by Aidan O’Brien – in the King Charles III Stakes.
The ground might not be in her favour, either, as Nemone Routh, French racing manager and director for the Aga Khan Studs, said: “We felt after the run at Ascot where she went very close, her best conditions are five furlongs and good top of the ground.
“She always needs a bit of luck as she’s a hold-up filly, but when she gets the splits she’s got a great turn of foot, she’s very game and always runs her race.
“She deserves her Group 1 as she has run a lot at Group 1 level and run some great races. She pretty much did everything to win last time and then that horse came from out of the clouds to get up on the line.
“You always need a bit of luck in these sprint races and for it to fall your way, especially with her as she’s not one of these fillies that just blasts in front – she has to find cover and come from the off the pace.
“She would need a little bit of a split and be in the right group, but if it falls her way I think she’ll run a big race.”
The home team includes Jim Goldie’s Scottish star American Affair and Richard Hannon’s Pershaada.
Richard Hannon senior won the race with a juvenile filly in Lyric Fantasy in 1992 and his son and heir is hoping to repeat the feat with a youngster who impressed when winning the Molecomb at Goodwood.
“I was extremely pleased with her in the Queen Mary (finished fourth) and she compounded that in the Molecomb, which she won very well – I thought she was probably the horse to take out of the meeting,” Hannon told Tattersalls.
“The Nunthorpe is always a hard race. You are a two-year-old taking on older horses, some of them six, seven or eight years of age. They have been racing for a long time and know what they are doing.
“But if they go very quick, she has the speed to lay up with anything. The way she won last time showed she is a very, very fast two-year-old. In my opinion, she would take some beating in any race over five furlongs and I think she will get six as well.”
COOLMORE NUNTHORPE STAKES
Latest betting: 7/2 Rayevka, 92/ Bacio, 8 American Affair, 10 Mission Central, Asfoora, Pershaada, 12 Night Raider, 14 Cover Up, Rumstar, 25 bar.
Gimcrack Stakes
A dozen horses will go to post in the Group 2 Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes over six furlongs with Arapaho Gold, Adaay Of Scarlett and Mrair looking to fend off the threat of Ballydoyle two-year-old Marco Polo.
Agamemnon, Final Objective and Mussab also look strong contenders.
Nine will line up for the Group 2 Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup over two miles with Caballo De Mar looking to bounce back from his Royal Ascot disappointment.
Ralph Beckett’s Amiloc, who unseated shortly after the start in the Goodwood Cup last time, will be hoping for safer passage while Al Nayyir, Carmers and Mount Atlas bring a decent level of form to the contest.
Illinois runs for Aidan O’Brien after King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes fourth Lambourn was taken out, while jumps supremo Willie Mullins will be represented by Columbus.