York Saturday

1.50 Sky Bet And Symphony Group Strensall Stakes (Group 3) 1m 177y

The unusual trip of the Strensall makes it a potentially tricky betting race, and as a previous winner, Lord Glitters will be rightly popular. The question with him is whether he is quite as good as he once was, although Lord Glitters seemed to answer that question in the affirmative when third to Aspetar in the York Stakes here last time, when he had Telecaster, Regal Reality and Elarqam behind.

This trip is probably his optimum these days, and while he has little in hand of Zabeel Prince and Pogo on ratings, but the former has been below his best on his last four starts, and again suggested he was not quite the force of old in the Meld Stakes on his return.

Pogo would be a huge threat granted an easy lead, but Miss O’Connor and possibly Certain Lad will go forward too, and in that scenario, a contested pace would be setting things up for the selection.

2.25 Sky Bet Melrose (Heritage Handicap) 1m 5f 188y

The Melrose always makes it hard to whittle the field down given it’s full of unexposed sorts, and few have shown what they can do granted a test of stamina. One I’ve always liked with this race in mind, however, is Bodyline, who is an outlier for his trainer in having the pedigree of a stayer but still able to win as a juvenile. He did so at Epsom despite looking big, gawky, and unsuited by the track, and he looked an improved performer when second in a hot handicap for the track at Yarmouth on his return.

He came in for an indifferent ride at Royal Ascot after that before being turned out quickly at Newmarket. That effort was underwhelming, but there is a strong whiff of unfinished business about him. The step up in trip will suit, and a more orthodox ride will see him in a better light, with the long straight ideal for one who takes a little time to get organised.

He’s also been gelded since last seen, and that should aid his development, while the switch from Luke Morris to the quieter style of Ryan Tate has paid dividends for a few from the stable already this season.

3.00 Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (Group 2) 7f

One Master is the clear pick in the City of York, but that is fully reflected in her price, and it’s well known that she is best at this trip, with her runs over different trips determined by the vagaries of the European Pattern. She is the likeliest winner, and I’d not want to suggest otherwise, but there is an argument that Brando is overpriced as the rank outsider, and Kevin Ryan’s eight-year-old is overdue another crack at seven furlongs.

Some of Brando’s very best efforts have come over 6½ furlongs in the Prix Maurice de Gheest, winning that race in 2017, finishing a close second last year, and finishing first home on the unfavoured stands side in between. He has tackled this trip only once as a mature horse, and was beaten before the trip was an issue in the Prix de la Foret.

He’s started to compromise his chance over shorter by starting slowly, but has been showing enough this year to suggest his ability remains, and he lost more ground at the stalls than he was beaten when sixth to Oxted in the July Cup last time. Horses who start poorly are never a great betting proposition at the best of times, but it’s easy to argue that ground lost at the start will be of less importance given the way races over this trip tend to be run, while odds of around 25/1 undervalue the ability of this hardy perennial. He is, after all, one of only two genuine Group 1 performers in the field, and he can reward each way support for those keeping the faith.

3.40 Sky Bet Ebor (Heritage Handicap) 1m 5f 188y

Verdana Blue gets an unusually confident shout for me in the Ebor. This is normally a race where I feel the need to choose between six or seven contenders who meet the right criteria, and I don’t want to make it sound like I think this race is not very competitive, but I’ve been convinced for a long time that Nicky Henderson’s mare could win a big handicap on the flat, and I’ve always thought that it would be at short of two miles given her turn of foot is her forte as a hurdler (remember how she outsprinted Buveur D’Air in the Christmas Hurdle?).

She ran a huge race to be placed in the Ascot Stakes on her most recent run, but she couldn’t finish as strongly as she had travelled throughout that day, which is hardly a surprise, as she would not be a certain stayer over that 2½ mile trip over hurdles, and with the ground drying out and York placing more emphasis on tactical speed, I believe everything is firmly in her favour here. She looked ahead of her mark at Ascot until her stamina was stretched late on, and a 2lb rise for that effort is very fair.

Regarding the draw for this race, lazy thinking suggests that low draws are best, but 22 of the 28 placed horses (winners included) in the past seven years have been drawn in double figures. With the non-runners factored in, Verdana Blue is effectively drawn in stall 11, and that is ideal, while those with fancies drawn even higher should not allow that to put them off. The figures never lie!

Recommended

Bodyline 2.25 York – 1pt win @ 8/1 (general)

Brando 3.00 York – 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Paddy Power, Boyles, BetVictor)

Verdana Blue 3.40 York – 2pts e/w @ 11/1 (Sky Bet, BetVictor)