TRAINER Criquette Head said before the Prix Vermeille that Treve (38) would not be given a hard race.

Jockey Thierry Jarnet rode her accordingly. He held her up in last place, brought her down the outside with a late run and gave her just two light taps with the whips as she closed into fourth - compared with the six, seven and five real cracks of the whip received by the first three.

Nicely as Treve moved all the way, I have to say I do not like the trend I see in the ratings I’ve awarded her this season. She got a rating of 43 from me for her terrific second to Cirrus Des Aigles first time out. She slipped to 40 when disappointing at Royal Ascot. Now she’s gone and run even slower (38) in her Arc prep.

There are a whole load of strong statistics that say Treve is up against it in her bid to win a second Arc.

For starters there’s the recent record of horses attempting a repeat win in the Arc:



The Arc has become a stronger race over the years. Five of the first 14 double attempts succeeded but only one of the last 16 did. The last 10 attempts all ended in failure.

In fact just running in the Arc more than once seems a big negative these days. In the last 26 years 63 horses have contested the Arc who ran in it before and they all lost.The clincher for me is the fact that that 13 of the last 15 Arc winners won a Group 1 by at least two lengths previously that same season. It would be 14 from 15 if Orfevre hadn’t gone walkabout a couple of years back when losing in a photo.

WINNERS

Treve hasn’t won a race of any sort this year, let along taking a Group 1 by a big margin.

The Arc entrants that have done that are:

  • Just A Way - has had no local prep and the statistics say that’s a big no
  • Goldship - by three lengths
  • Taghrooda - no Oaks winner has ever won an Arc
  • Australia - not running
  • The Grey Gatsby - not running
  • Mukhadram - not running
  • Ivanhowe

    • I don’t want to sound like a broken record but it seems to me the statistics are pointing to Ivanhowe as the likely Arc winner just as strongly as my speed ratings and analysis.

    In any event the Prix Vermeille went to Baltic Baroness (39), a very consistent filly who has run one big race after another this season.

    She doesn’t seem quite up to beating males at the top level but was winning for the third time in a row here.Pomology (32-pace adjusted 39) looked the winner for a long way but just lost out in a lengthy duel with Baltic Baroness. She’d won all her previous four starts and will surely win a fillies Group 1 soon.

    Third placed Dolniya (38) was held up at the back with Treve and made her move at the same time. She gained nicely and wasn’t given quite as hard a race as the first two. She’s one of the best three-year-old fillies even though she has yet to win a Group 1.

    I have to mention that Solemia won the Arc after running third in the Vermeille and not previously taking a Group 1. I should add that I awarded Solemia a rating of 41 before her Arc win whereas 38 is the best I’ve given Dolniya.