IN a year that somewhat lacked a stand-out performer in the division, the Roger Varian-trained Belardo emerged as the European Champion Two-Year-Old with a rating of 119 following his authoritative success in the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket.
The lack of a stand-out performer has translated into a champion whose rating is the joint-lowest rating that a European Champion Two-Year-Old has achieved since 1994.
Indeed, this is only the second time in that period (after Camelot and Dabirsim shared the title with ratings of 119 in 2011) that a European Champion Two-Year-Old has claimed that title by achieving a rating under 121.
To give further context, in that period the highest-rated champion was Celtic Swing (130) in 1994 and the average rating of the champions was 123.7.
For all that his rating is very much at the lower end of the historic scale for a champion, as previous “below average” European Champion Two-Year-Olds including Oasis Dream, Bago, Shamardal, Mastercraftsman and Camelot have shown, that is not a barrier to significant success as a three-year-old and Belardo has strong classic claims in 2015.
He has shown enough pace to suggest that he can compete in the 2000 Guineas and there is enough stamina in his pedigree to suggest he has fair claims of staying the Derby trip.
However, the biggest concern for him going forward is that he does seem to appreciate an ease in the ground and history has shown that such a surface is a rarity in the first two British classics for colts.
Indeed, with that in mind, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him line up in the Irish 2000 Guineas where the chances of a softer surface are greater.
While the champion may have ended up on a below-average rating, there are no shortage of colts that finished behind him in the rankings that promise to be serious contenders in Group 1 company in 2015.
The Charlie Appleby-trained Charming Thought (118) defied his lack of stakes-race experience to get the better of the previously unbeaten Ivawood (117) by a nose in a high-class and exciting renewal of the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket, but one can’t help but wonder what the result would have been on a sounder surface.
The Richard Hannon-trained Ivawood had looked a star in the making in winning his three previous starts in electric style and he just didn’t seem as comfortable on the softer ground.
While neither of them raced beyond six furlongs in 2014, both have solid prospects of staying a mile and Ivawood in particular looks to be a contender for the 2000 Guineas.
In terms of a middle-distance prospect, none achieved more as a two-year-old in 2014 than the Andrew Balding-trained Elm Park (117).
The winner of four of his five starts culminating in an impressive victory in the Racing Post Trophy, he is very much bred to stay the Derby trip and right now, he sets the standard in that division in form terms.
Aidan O’Brien may have had two Group 1-winning two-year-olds in 2014 in the shape of Gleneagles (116) and Dick Whittington (115), but many suspect that his best prospects for 2015 were somewhat less exposed in 2014, with the likes of Ol’ Man River (114), John F Kennedy (114) and Highland Reel (109) all appealing as being live classic prospects.
While the juvenile colts may have only been able to register below-average ratings in 2014, the fillies were much more in line with what is expected.
At the conclusion of the campaign there was a dead-heat in the race for the title of European Champion Two-Year-Old Filly, with the Aidan O’Brien-trained Found and the Richard Hannon-trained Tiggy Wiggy both finishing the season with ratings of 117.
To give historical context, the average rating of a European Champion Two-Year-Old Filly since 1994 has been 117.5.
While the final ratings may only be described as average in a historical context, that shouldn’t take away from what was an exhilarating season in the two-year-old filly division.
Tiggy Wiggy and Found may have emerged with the highest ratings, but the series of races with interlocking form that led to the final ratings were a pleasure to watch, with the Eddie Lynam-trained Anthem Alexander (114), the Roger Varian-trained Cursory Glance (112), the André Fabre-trained High Celebrity (112) and the Jim Bolger-trained Lucida (111) all playing leading roles in the overall picture and winning their share of high-class contests along the way.
While Tiggy Wiggy’s stamina for a mile will need to be proven in 2015, Found is already proven over that distance and has strong prospects of staying a mile and a half, making her the outstanding classic prospect of her generation.
From a breeding perspective, 2014 was an excellent year for first-season sires with Lope De Vega (Belardo), Zebedee (Ivawood), Starspangledbanner (The Wow Signal) and Rip Van Winkle (Dick Whittington) all siring two-year-olds that finished in the top 10 juveniles in Europe.