KELSO SATURDAY
14:25 BERNHARD LIGHTING RIG HANDICAP HURDLE 2M 51Y
Joke Dancer was a late non-runner in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham, a race in which he looked of distinct interest, and he can prove that point by winning this lesser - albeit intriguing – handicap.
He won three time on soft or heavy going last winter, and looked better than ever on his belated return at Newcastle last month having had a breathing operation.
He was too strong for the talented Albert’s Back at Gosforth Park and while the runner-up is now 5lbs better off for a four-length defeat, Joke Dancer is expected to come on again for the run.
Owner Aafke Clarke and trainer Sue Smith teamed up to win last year’s Scottish Champion Hurdle with Midnight Shadow, and this improving son of Authorized could easily be on his way to Ayr should the ground come up in his favour. In the meantime, he appears to have plenty more to offer, and the easier going here will suit better than at Newcastle.
Winston C will be popular with punters given his record, and he is respected, but isn’t the biggest horse to be carrying the impost of top-weight, a comment which also applies to the likeable Irish Roe, and the much more physically robust Joke Dancer is expected to outmatch that pair in the circumstances.
15:00 LIZ ADAM MEMORIAL HANDICAP CHASE 3M 2F 39Y
On the subject of horses built to carry heavy burdens, there should be no concerns about the strapping Blue Flight conceding weight to his rivals here. Whether he is genuinely well handicapped is up for debate, with Black Corton palpably below form when Blue Flight beat him in the Belhaven Brewery Premier Chase here early in the month, but the presence of the reliable Captain Redbeard in third gives some substance to the form, and Nigel Twiston-Davies’s giant gelding has been progressing well since winning over an inadequate trip at Ascot in January.
He is still a little raw, but appeals as a strong stayer who should relish the longer trip here, and is worth the benefit of the doubt to show his mark is a fair one, especially against lower-rated rivals.
Le Reve has been revitalised to win his last two starts, but is still lower in the weights than he was at the start of the season, so commands respect, with his win in the Surrey National at Lingfield suggesting that his status as a Sandown specialist is a little overplayed.
15:35 PAXTONS EXCLUSIVELY KVERNELAND HANDICAP HURDLE 3M 1F 170Y
Worthy Farm has won two of his three starts in handicaps and is clearly one to be interested in for a yard with a 38% strike-rate at Kelso in recent seasons, and he is likely to prove much better than his mark of 130 in time, particularly over fences.
He deserves to start favourite, and is given the necessary respect, but marginal preference at likely odds is for Seemorelights, who missed last season after showing plenty of promise as a novice, and picked up where he left off after needing his return when an unfortunate casualty at Ayr last time.
He capsized at the last there having looked all over the winner, and that run indicates that he has found further progress this season. That was a strong contest, and the decision of the handicapper to raise him 6lbs is justified, if somewhat galling for connections.
He has a background in the Irish pointing field, and appeared to stay three miles as a novice, so the step up in trip should be within his compass, for all it’s not guaranteed to help.
What makes him most interesting, however, is the booking of James Reveley on a rare trip to this old haunt; Reveley is arguably the outstanding rider over jumps in France at the present time, and his booking certainly takes the eye.
NEWBURY SATURDAY
14:40 BE WISER INSURANCE JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE 2M 2F 183Y
I’m inclined to take two against the field here, with Fred Winter also-ran Prabeni much better than he could show there, and expected to do better with that experience behind him, and while he needs to improve his jumping technique, he does not lack the ability to win off this sort of mark assuming his Cheltenham experience has been educational.
He didn’t make mistakes as such in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, to give the race its official title, but he was inclined to jump the obstacles like fences, and landed steeply as a result, which saw him lose a good pitch on the downhill run, a stumble after landing at the third-last flight setting the seal on things.
He’d shown a good attitude to win his previous two starts, and is one of a number who should be seen to advantage at this longer trip.
Another who will appreciate the increased test of stamina is Groveman, who has shown useful form at the minimum trip despite getting outpaced at a crucial stage at both Doncaster and Sedgefield.
Jedd O’Keeffe has had three winners and three seconds from his last dozen runners to show that his team is thriving, and he looks the most solid option at the prices.
15:15 EBF & TBA MARES’ NH NOVICES’ HURDLE SERIES FINAL (GRADE 2) 2M 4F 118Y
Jeremy Scott struck again on the opening day of this fixture to bring his seasonal tally to 31 winners and make it officially his best ever campaign.
He has a chance of capping that by winning this prestigious contest with Our Dot’s Baby, who has had a more open campaign than some of her rivals, but still appeals as fairly treated, and is definitely overpriced at 25/1 in a place.
Like Friday’s winner Dashel Drasher, she made all here on her latest start, and kept pulling out more to defy the runner-up, and while there is little chance that she will get an uncontested lead, she appeals as one who is willing to battle when taken on, and that makes her of obvious interest.
She would have been second on her previous start at Uttoxeter but for a late fall, and the winner, Indefatigable ran really well to be a close fifth in the Dawn Run Hurdle at Cheltenham, and would have been closer but for being messed around more than once in the race.
She showed last time that this trip suits her better than shorter, and she appears to have a similar chance to several who are much shorter in the betting.
The White Mouse is feared most given that she has yet to show all she can do in a short career to date, and I would make her my selection without recourse to prices.
Unfortunately, she’s been well found in the market, and while the 9/2 best price is not bad value, the general price is less appealing.
RECOMMENDED
JOKE DANCER 2:25 Kelso – 1pt win @ 7/1 (Paddy Power)
PRABENI 2:40 Newbury – 1pt win @ 20/1 (general)
GROVEMAN 2:40 Newbury – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (BetFred, 888Sport)
OUR DOT’S BABY 3:15 Newbury – 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Paddy Power)