Haydock Saturday

1:45 Betfair Superior Mile Stakes (Group 3) 1m 37y

It’s tempting to go with the proven soft-ground form of Stormy Antarctic, but while neither Khaloosy nor Top Rank have raced on such a surface, both appeal as likely to relish it, with Khaloosy winning on dead ground in the Britannia at Royal Ascot before seeming reluctant to let himself down on quicker turf at Goodwood.

He can reverse form with My Oberon as a result, but I just favour Top Rank at the expected prices. James Tate’s heavy-topped colt won his first four starts and improved again despite meeting his first defeat at York last time. That was in a handicap, and this looks a big step up, but it’s not an especially strong Group 3 on paper, and the son of Dark Angel is out of a well-related Authorized mare, and that pedigree screams soft ground to me, as does his physique.

He only has a couple of pounds to find to land this prize, and is still unexposed, especially in these conditions.

2:15 Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap 1m 6f 1y

Favorite Moon can’t beat Arthurian Fable on Melrose form when the Haggas gelding was over 27 lengths behind the runner-up, but York constantly sees good horses run unaccountably badly. The form to concentrate on is his previous win over course and distance in heavy ground, when he beat no less a rival than Subjectivist, who scored by 15 lengths in the March Stakes last weekend in almost identical conditions.

That shows how good Favorite Moon can be, and he looks very well treated on that form, despite what happened last time. The fitting of a tongue tie suggests a breathing issue, but that was not reported at the time, and I wonder whether it’s just a belt-and-braces precaution from his trainer with no obvious reason coming to light for his flop.

2:50 Betfair Exchange Old Borough Cup Handicap 1m 6f 1y

Brandon Castle lost his way having been overfaced both over hurdles and on the flat in recent times, but Neil King has nursed him back and he has looked better than ever when winning his last two over timber at Market Rasen. He returns to the flat off a 7lb lower mark than when winning on heavy ground at Musselburgh a couple of seasons ago, and given his hurdles efforts suggest he’s as good as ever, he would appear to have obvious claims with going and trip to suit.

He was only fourth on his seasonal return at Newmarket, but was sent off an unfancied 50/1 shot that day on the back of an absence, and still looked the likeliest winner until getting tired from the furlong pole. He’s back to full fitness now, and if this goes to plan, he will go straight to the front from his wide draw, and won’t see another rival.

3:25 Betfair Sprint Cup Stakes (Group 1) 6f

It’s easy to imagine a re-invigorated Dream of Dreams will take all the beating after slamming subsequent Group 3 winner Breathtaking Look by seven lengths in the Hungerford Stakes last time, and while I’m inclined to be cautious about the ease of that win given his overall record, he’s priced as if that form is not wholly reliable, and I wouldn’t want to be laying him for lumpy sums at 3/1 and bigger.

That said, his profile is rather a frustrating one, and he ran poorly on very soft ground in the British Champions Sprint at Ascot last autumn, so I am wary of backing him.

That makes it hard to have a bet, but there is one horse who is overpriced in my view, and that is Nunthorpe no-show Art Power. I didn’t think the outright test of speed at York would suit him, and the nature of the race meant that he could never get competitive. He had previously looked out of the ordinary when beating Millisle in the Lacken Stakes at Naas and when cruising to victory on his previous starts this year.

If he’d come here without stopping off at York first, he’d be disputing favouritism, and I don’t think that effort really changes anything, so midweek prices of 8/1 were plain wrong. He’s shortening up now, but Bet365’s 13/2 is value, and the 6/1 general price is still fine.

4:00 Betfair Each Way Edge Be Friendly Handicap 5f

I was quite keen on the chance of Came From The Dark on his belated return at York, but was concerned to hear both jockey and trainer quoted in the media as saying he would need the run, and he could finish only 16th there. That sounds like a poor run, but you won’t see many more sympathetic rides, and after looking like staying into contention, he seemed to blow up and Ryan Moore was virtually a passenger for the last two furlongs.

Not only is that effort much better than it looks, but this horse is much better than we’ve seen of him so far, with Ed Walker talking of him as a high-class sprinter in the making.

Came From The Dark had a couple of training setbacks earlier in the year, hence his lack of fitness at York, but he was a very easy winner over course and distance at this meeting last year, and improved again when second at Ascot on his final start despite being drawn away from the action (in stall 12, when four of the first six home came from the lowest four stalls). He’s only 2lb higher than for that effort, and is totally unexposed as a soft-ground sprinter.

Ascot Saturday

3:05 Lavazza Stakes (Heritage Handicap) 1m 3f 211y

Not a race to be adamant about, but the market has a rather upside-down look to it, and I would have the outsiders Ravens Ark and Noble Masquerade as among the most interesting runners here. Both are improving, and have little to find on form, so their relative prices are surprising.

The latter has had just one start at this trip when doing good late work in a Newbury maiden won by Coconut, and is a massive 13lb better off. I’d fancy him to bridge the gap without the weight differential given how he shaped under a sympathetic Tom Queally ride, so with that massive turnaround, it’s a big surprise to see him a bigger price than his Newbury conqueror, and he looks a fair bet to outrun his odds.

3:40 Tweenhills Follow The Foals Handicap 6f

Fortamour has been a model of consistency in handicaps for Ben Haslam, and while he’s up in class and just out of the weights here, he will be suited by a well-run six furlongs against the collar, and ought to hit the frame again, making him appealing at double-figure odds. His latest third of 19 to Documenting at York was a career best, and the cheekpieces he wore for the first time there are retained.

4:15 Porsche Handicap 7f

Arbalet is a frustrating character who ran badly on the all-weather at Chelmsford last time, but is worth backing back under ideal circumstances here. David O’Meara’s gelding has been unplaced on both career outings on Polytrack, and has saved some of his very best efforts for Ascot. He was a close fifth in the Jersey Stakes as a three-year-old over course and distance, a remarkable performance given he lost almost ten lengths at the start, and then finished an excellent second in the International Stakes on his next start off a mark of 104.

He’s finally back on a good mark, and while he could finish only 11th in the latest running of the International, he was drawn next to the horse who played up badly in the stalls, and missed the kick as a result.

He was staying on well when short of room in the latter stages, and gave the impression he would have been placed with more luck. He’s a horse who does tend to make his own bad luck, of course, but is more than capable of winning from his mark. Josephine Gordon knows him well from his time with Hugo Palmer.

Recommended:

Brandon Castle 2:50 Haydock – 1pt win @ 16/1 (Bet365, 888Sport, 14/1 Paddy Power)

Art Power 3:25 Haydock – 1pt win @ 13/2 (Bet365, 6/1 general)

Came From The Dark – 2pts win @ 17/2 (Hills, 8/1 general) Arbalet 4:15 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power, Unibet – ¼ odds)

Winners

Rory Delargy is in great form with his tips having advised 11/4 and 13/2 (both SP) winners last weekend