LET’S say this was last year. The assignment sounds easy, “Could you do a classic crop update for this week – up to 1,000 words if you could from all the trials and maiden winners for January?”
No problem.
Who knows where I would have started – Good Magic, the maiden breaker in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Bolt d’Oro, the beaten favourite in the Breeders’ Cup, Catholic Boy, winner on the Remsen… sure, throw in some Bob Baffert, Todd Pletcher and Steve Asmussen burners and call it a day.
Sent on February 9th, you’re reading it by February 10th. The Derby looms in three months. Piece of cake. Done and dusted. There’s your Kentucky Derby preview, your Triple Crown precursor. Just read the names and go to the window.
One problem.
Last year’s Triple Crown winner Justify made his debut seven days later, dominating a seven-furlong maiden at Santa Anita on February 11th. Yeah, there’s the rub on writing classic crop updates in February.
In the ever-changing, china-doll world of thoroughbred racing, there’s no telling where the Derby winner or the Triple Crown winner is in February. Last year, Justify was a big, raw-boned, morning-freak who would end the ‘Apollo Curse’, becoming the first Derby winner since Apollo not to have raced at two.
This year, there is a list of horses who have already etched their names on the cutting board.
But are there others, perhaps like Justify, who aren’t at the table yet?
I’ll watch the maiden races at Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita, Oaklawn Park and Gulfstream and get back to you on that.
As for today’s list, well, it’s as follows. And, remember, it’s February, a lot can happen by May.
1. GAME WINNER
Trained by Bob Baffert, the undefeated two-year-old champion has posted three breezes since taking the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November. A winner of three Grade 1 stakes already, he’s at the top of the list.
He’s versatile, he’s fast and he’s trained by the man who has produced the two most recent Triple Crown winners.
Game Winner is tentatively planning to make his three-year-old debut in the San Felipe March 9th.
2. IMPROBABLE.
Another undefeated colt trained by Baffert (get used to it), the son of City Zip won the Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity in December and has posted five breezes in 2019. He thrashed Mucho Gusto in the Futurity and, well, read the next paragraph for a reference point on that.
3. MUCHO GUSTO
Yes, another one trained by Baffert, the son of Mucho Macho Man rebounded from his loss in the Futurity by dominating the Robert B. Lewis Stakes February 2nd.
Under Joe Talamo, the chesnut colt drew off with ease to post a four-and-three-quarter-length score over Gunmetal Gray. If you’re keeping score, that’s Baffert 3 and the rest 0 so far.
4. WAR OF WILL
Purchased at Arqana last May, the son of War Front took five tries to break his maiden, albeit in three stakes, before graduating in November. In his three-year-old debut, he copped the LeComte Stakes at Fair Grounds in January for Mark Casse. Sent off favourite, he toyed with 11 rivals, drawing off to score by four lengths.
5. KNICKS GO
Dubbed an overachiever after upsetting the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity in October and stretching his speed to finish second in the Breeders’ Cup, the son of Paynter makes his three-year-old debut in the Sam Davis this weekend.
6. HIDDEN SCROLL
Punch up his debut win on YouTube and you’ll see why he’s ranked sixth on the list. Juddmonte and Bill Mott deserve a Derby win.
7. SIGNALMAN
Another shrewd purchase by Ken McPeek, this son of General Quarters won the Kentucky Jockey Club in November and has posted two breezes so far this year. Beautiful horse who will get the trip.
8. MIND CONTROL
Winner of the Hopeful at Saratoga last year and a New Year’s Day winner of the Jerome, the son of Stay Thirsty led every step in the Jerome, he’ll need to be more versatile than that to stretch 10 furlongs in May.
9. HARVEY
WALLBANGER
Sharing a name with a famous racing buffalo, he’s a runner, snuck through on the inside to upset the Fasig-Tipton Holy Bull for McPeek. Likeable horse going the right way.
10. INSTAGRAND
Only run twice and won twice, California-based colt won the Best Pal in August before hitting the shelf. Trained by Hall of Famer Jerry Hollendorfer, the son of Into Mischief has been working steadily toward his three-year-old debut.
11. TAX
Claimed for $50,000 in October, son of Arch won the Withers in last week.
12. MAXIMUS MISCHIEF
Vanquished favourite in the Holy Bull doesn’t appear to want 10 furlongs but deserves another try.
13. GUNMETAL GRAY
A far cry from Mucho Gusto last weekend, looks like a grinder who could clunk into the frame when the pace melts in front of him.
14. CALL PAUL
Won the Swale Stakes last weekend going seven furlongs. Will be stamina tested at some point.
15. MUCHO
My favourite horse.
16. WIN WIN WIN
Has won won won three races from four starts so far. Trained by Mike Trombetta, the son of Hat Trick won the Pasco Stakes impressively in January. Potent.
17. GRAY ATTEMPT
Unheralded Pennsylvania-bred has won three of four for trainer Jinks Fires, one of the all-time great characters in a character-filled game.
18. CODE OF HONOR
Loved this colt at Saratoga in August, but he flopped in the Mucho Macho Man in January. Trainer Shug McGaughey is good at going back to the drawing board.
19. TACITUS
Bill Mott has three of the top 20? Wow, how times change. Another royally-bred Juddmonte runner, this son of Close Hatches broke his maiden in November.
20. NETWORK EFFECT
What’s a list without a Chad Brown runner? A debut winner at Saratoga in August, he finished second in the Nashua and Remsen. Awaiting his three-year-old debut.
21. FIVE STAR GENERAL
Trainer Arnaud Delacour originally thought of this son of Distorted Humor as a turf horse but after a rain-filled 2018, he’s two-for-three on the dirt. He gets a sterner test in the Sam Davis today.