THERE has been a marked change in the ante-post market for the Qatar Arc de Triomphe over the past month.

This follows the defeat of classic winners Australia, Sea The Moon and Taghrooda plus another below par performance by last year’s heroine Treve who was only a moderate fourth when trying to land back-to-back wins in the Qatar Prix Vermeille at Longchamp last Sunday.

The new joint-favourite with Taghrooda at 6/1 is the unbeaten Avenir Certain but she has never run over a mile and a half.

Ectot had his odds clipped to 7/1 after an excellent winning comeback in the Qatar Prix Niel where he showed a mile and a half was in his grasp.

Then come the Japanese raiders Just A Way, Harp Star and Gold Ship. The former is definitely improving with age and the winner of his last four group races of which three, including the Dubai Duty Free, were at the highest level. He was, however, only 11th in the 2012 Japanese Derby and never won over further than 10 furlongs.

Harp Star won her domestic 1000 Guineas but was only second in the longer Japanese Oaks. She was a Grade 2 winner ahead of Gold Ship, who has five Grade 1 wins to his credit, at Sapporo last time out.

This year, the Japanese raiders are not having a prep at Longchamp and flying straight in for the big race.

Kingston Hill now has a quote of 12/1 following his victory in the Ladbrokes St Leger but this classic is a graveyard for the Arc. He was runner-up to Australia in the Investec Derby, can act on any going and more than stay the Arc distance.

Ruler Of The World made short work of his rivals in the Qatar Prix Foy. Frankie Dettori made all on the colt who was winning for the first time since landing the Investec Derby last year.

He is currently quoted at 16/1 and runner-up Flintshire is at 33/1. The Qatar Prix Vermeille winner, Baltic Baroness, is at 20/1 but she would have to be supplemented into the Arc and is more likely to go for the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare race.

As things stand at the moment, it might be wise to avoid the ante-post market until the state of the ground becomes better known in the run up to the Arc on October 5th.