IT has been observed that all you need in order for a bet to be struck is for two parties to have opposing views. That is seldom a problem in the world of horseracing, in which one person’s ‘white’ is almost inevitably another person’s ‘black’.

It was, however, difficult in the aftermath of this season’s King George VI Chase at Kempton to find anyone in the mainstream or social media who differed significantly from the view that the winner, Thistlecrack, had proved himself such a brilliant chaser that all he had to do was avoid mishap to add the Cheltenham Gold Cup to his haul in March.

In winning the midwinter chasing crown on just his fourth start over larger obstacles – from his esteemed stable-companion and previous year’s winner Cue Card – Thistlecrack did something that very few horses in history could have done. When you view that alongside his exceptional record as a staying hurdler, the almost universal adulation is understandable, if not necessarily justified.

But it pays in horseracing and betting to be sceptical, even about the very best horses – perhaps especially about the very best horses – and you do not have to look all that far to find evidence which suggests that group think may have taken over.

FRACTIONS

Above all, it would be good to have an explanation as to why Thistlecrack ran his race only fractionally quicker than did Royal Vacation in winning the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase shortly before, especially when the latter passed the post first only because Might Bite fell at the last when a long way clear. Had Might Bite stood up, he would have bettered Thistlecrack’s time by more than 2.0s.

The purpose of a race is not to run the fastest possible time (it would make this column a lot easier to write – and perhaps to read – if that were otherwise!), but to run faster than your rivals.

Nonetheless, sectional times show that Thistlecrack was only a few lengths behind the leaders in the novice contest for much of the way before making a race-winning move on the home turn, only to fall behind again thereafter.

Thistlecrack was not unduly pressed in the closing stages, and Cue Card, Silviniaco Conti and Tea For Two closed in on him, but it has to be wondered if he could have found another 10 or 12 lengths simply to match strides in theory with a horse in Might Bite that was, like him, only a novice.

GENEROUS

On overall times, Thistlecrack was a mere 8lb quicker than Royal Vacation, whose only previous win over fences had come off a handicap mark of 129 two starts earlier. I have them running 149 and 141 respectively, and that may be generous. The latter figure suggests that Might Bite would have run to around 160 but for his fall.

Thistlecrack had arguably run faster the time before at Newbury, when earning a timefigure of 158, and he was rated in the 170s as a hurdler, but his jumping was put under little pressure by a sedate pace in the King George, and his main rival, Cue Card, manifestly did not give his running.

Far from being tempted by odds of around evens for Thistlecrack for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, he looks worth laying at around that price. Your white is my black; or perhaps you agree, in which case your black is my black, too!