DEEP into the sales season, clearance rate and talk of overproduction are becoming topics of discussion.

Sire statistics on 2016 coverings also made interesting reading in the light of so many unsold horses. You can say every horse will find a buyer, but every breeder will not find a profit.

John Gosden’s recent comments, that the trend to breed for speed was damaging the racehorse, have a place in this debate also, along with the retirement to stud, after his two-year-old season, of Group 2 winner Mehmas.

Dark Angel might have a lot to answer for. It was he, and his stud success, that is responsible for much of the trend. He went to stud after his Middle Park win, his fee has risen from €10,000 to €60,000 and has led breeders to look for similar success. The sire comment “ tough, high-class 2yo over 5-7f, unraced at 3 or older,” has grown more frequent with horses like Lilbourne Lad, Approve, Zebedee, Sir Prancealot, and Gutaifan all joining the stallion ranks.

Dark Angel was pure sprint-bred, Acclamation out of a Royal Applause mare, and the intention, as with any sire, should be to reproduce himself. Some call it “commercial speed”, some “cheap speed”.

Dark Angel came up with the goods, exceed expectations and has continued to sire horses with some substance. Dual Group 1 winner Lethal Force was an angel unawares, bought for €8,500, improving as he raced into his four-year-old season. Mecca’s Angel is his second star.

Unlike many of the sprint-bred sires, it would be no surprise to see him siring a classic winner. Persuasive could become a Group 1 mile winner.

TREND

As Dark Angel’s progeny proved successful, it appeared to spark a trend - retire them young. Earnings in the breeding shed would outweigh what they could earn on the track, even with the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup as an attraction.

The trend has continued. Gutaifan wasn’t cheap on what he achieved on the track but was in high demand in his first season covering no less than 203 mares at a fee of €12,500. Compare it with a horse of Camelot’s ability and looks, who began at €25,000.

It was interest to hear Anthony Rogers say in a Racing Post interview how Archipenko was not “popular”.

How do we define popular - gets lots of two-year-old winners? But what happens when the popular sire is superseded by another. Lilbourne Lad and Approve have moved on. There could be three large crops in the production line, in-foal mares, foals, yearlings, by a sire who has lost his “popularity”.

Horses like Gutaifan, from the speed line Dark Angel - Acclamation - Royal Applause, would appear unlikely to get a classic winner. From that covering figure and volume of foals, you could be looking at a lot of sprint handicappers on the track in three years’ time.

Our breeding expert Dr Sieglinde McGee commented on the current trend: “There is money and marketing might behind some of the flash-in-the-pan horses, precocious ones who get packed off to the sheds because of apparent concerns that they won’t withstand racing at three, or just would not be good enough to compete with the big boys, so that’s how the breed is being steered.”

“Sales races that offer huge prize money can mess up the tables and make some of these stallions look better than they are.”

“We’re already at a point where the middle-distance classics are being dominated by a small handful of stallions, where there’s such a shying away from 12-furlong stamina that even Galileo is being bred to sprinters in an apparent attempt to produce two-year-old stars that might manage to stay 10 furlongs, if they train on.”

They produce two-year-old winners, which, with bonus prize money in two-year-old races, can pay for themselves if the aim is getting more owners into the sport, but long term they will struggle. It’s the sales horse and the racehorse - only one will last, and if no-one wants the sales horse, someone losses out.

“We’re not going with the dough,” said Great British Bake Off presenters. But that’s the intention in the sales ring, the developing sales soft middle could lead to a soggy bottom for many with yearlings to sell.