THE identity of the best active thoroughbred in the world has been a straight fight between two horses – the American Arrogate and the Australian Winx – for some time now, though events at York could change that.
Both horses were in action last Saturday, with mixed results. First up was Winx, who took her winning run to a remarkable 18 in the Group 2 Warwick Stakes at Randwick.
That she beat the smart pair Foxplay and Ecuador narrowly fails to tell the whole story, for she lost several lengths leaving the stalls before mowing down her rivals late in the 1400-metre contest.
Winx’s timing chip malfunctioned, but it is possible to extrapolate her splits from those of her rivals and the margins at each juncture. These show that she got progressively faster after the early sections until slowing slightly at the finish. Her penultimate 200 metres went by in about 10.3s (over 43 mph) and it was reported that her last 600 was the fastest at the track ever.
Timeform’s Australian colleagues have speculated that she was at least 12lbs better than the result, using the upgrading methodology I developed some years back, but her rivals did not run entirely efficiently also.
SERIOUSLY
Either way, Winx’s position in second on WBRR (Worlds Best Racehouse Ratings) and Timeform form ratings looks justified. Demanding that she do it abroad before being taken seriously, as some have stated, says plenty about an ignorance of Australian racing and little about what she might additionally “prove” by such an exercise.
Arrogate did travel, to Dubai in March, and put up one of the most impressive efforts of modern times in overcoming misfortune to run down the top-class Gun Runner. But it may have left its mark.
He was below form for the second time when beaten half a length by Collected in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar, but he went some way to rehabilitating a reputation deeply tarnished by an abject defeat in the San Diego Handicap on the course in July.
Timeform US rate this as pretty good form, worth numbers of around 122 for Collected and 121 for Arrogate if translated to a European timefigure context, by my reckoning.
Arrogate has not “gone”, but he still has some way to go to get back to the heady heights of where he once was.