IN one respect, the answer to the question “what does it take to win or run well at the Cheltenham Festival?” is simple. It takes superior ability, tuned-to-the-second preparedness, and suitability to the precise task being faced.

In another, it is far more complex. There are plenty who fit the bill every year but who fail to make the grade, while there are others who perform well despite deficiencies in one (but seldom more than one) of those categories. You often need a bit of luck along the way, too.

The above is relevant to bettors as well: look for the superior ability and suitability in the participants, equine and human, but the preparedness is where you can come into it, too. There is plenty of good advice elsewhere on these pages about how you may achieve that, including in terms of trends, so I thought I would look at a few of the more obvious Festival highlights, historically and analytically, in a bit more depth. First, though, it is useful to recall some of the ways in which performance may be measured.

  • • Form and time ratings assess performance and individual horses on a universal scale, ranging from zero to 175 and higher over jumps. My time-based ratings appear in The Irish Field on a weekly basis, while the historical form-based ratings quoted here are Timeform’s.
  • • Impact values consider not just winners and placed horses but how often they won or placed (that is, finished in the first three for these purposes) compared to chance. It is not much use discovering that a certain age-group won five of the last 10 editions of a race without knowing how many wins could be expected if there were no bias whatsoever.
  • • Percentage of rivals beaten takes this one step further by considering the proportion of a field a horse or a given category of horses managed to beat, thus distinguishing between, say, a horse finishing second in a 21-runner field (beat 95% of its rivals) and one finishing second-last (beat 5% of its rivals).

    • Champion Hurdle

    Tuesday, March 10th

    The crème de la crème of hurdling, the Champion Hurdle has been won by some of the sport’s greats, including Istabraq (rated 180 by Timeform at his peak) three times around the turn of the millennium and Hurricane Fly (173) twice more recently.

    The average Timeform rating of the winner in the last 10 years has been 166.5, of seconds 162, and of thirds 158.

    There have, however, been some more forgettable winners, barely scraping into the 160s, and even more such placed horses. Melon and Silver Streak were placed in 2019 despite both running to just 147 behind 170-rated wide-margin winner Espoir d’Allen.

    Silver Streak was 80/1 and probably ran no better than he had previously, including in handicaps. At least one horse starting at 10/1 or bigger has made the first three in each of the last five years.

    It can pay to look for solid if unexceptional form up against the promise and hype.

    Seven-year-olds have won 1.80 times as often as by-chance this century and have a place impact value of 1.28 (have been placed just over a quarter more often than might be expected), while beating a healthy 57% of their rivals.

    Queen Mother Champion Chase

    Wednesday, March 11th

    Wednesday’s highlight, the Queen Mother Champion Chase, saw the greatest performance of the modern jumping era according to Timeform in 2013, when Sprinter Sacre beat the 2011 winner Sizing Europe by 19 lengths and earned a 192 rating.

    Sprinter Sacre was back in the winner’s enclosure in 2016, and another latter-day legend in Altior doubled up in 2018 (179 rating) and 2019.

    The other winners have been less exceptional, with the 10-year average rating on 171, runner-ups at 164 and thirds at 158. There is usually space for a less-heralded horse to pick up a slice of the action, though no winner since Newmill in 2006 has started at bigger than 11/1.

    Horses under the age of eight have provided six of the last 19 winners from quite a small representation, with impact values of 1.51 for a win (51% more winners than might be expected simply by chance) and 1.26 for a place, and 55% of rivals beaten.

    The only five-year-old to compete in that time was a winner: the mighty Master Minded, who ran to 179 when winning by 19 lengths also in 2008 (he followed-up less spectacularly as a six-year-old).

    Stayers’ Hurdle

    Thursday, March 12th

    The Stayers’ Hurdle is the longest-standing of the Cheltenham Festival’s championship races, having first been run in 1912, 12 years before the Gold Cup, 15 years prior to the Champion Hurdle and 47 years in advance of the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

    It suffers a little in comparison with those other races these days, as can be gauged from 10-year-average ratings of 161 for winners, 157 for seconds and 152 for thirds. Thistlecrack (167) in 2016 has been the best winner since the era of Big Buck’s.

    Big Buck’s won four consecutive Stayers’ Hurdles from 2009 to 2012, coming on the back of Inglis Drever winning three out of four. The former achieved his best rating of 172 for his first win and was odds-on for the last three.

    Thistlecrack and last year’s winner Paisley Park were short-priced favourites also, but 33/1 shots have been placed in three of the last four editions.

    A five-year-old has not won the race in living memory, but not many try, and that age-group has actually over-performed judged by other means.

    Five- and six-year-olds combined have won six and been placed 22 times this century, resulting in a win impact value of 1.28, a place impact value of 1.55 and 58% of rivals beaten.

    Ryanair Chase

    Thursday, March 12th

    The Ryanair Chase was founded in 2005 (initially as the Festival Trophy) as a substitute for the Cathcart Chase, which had been restricted to first- and second-season chasers only. It was elevated to Grade 1 status in 2008.

    It is firmly established as one of the highlights of the Festival, with 10-year average ratings for winners of 167, seconds of 162 and thirds of 160. Despite some slightly shallow renewals, no horse has made the first three running to less than 154, and Cue Card (175 in 2013) and Vautour (174 in 2016) have been standout winners.

    Favourites have won four and finished second in three of those 10 contests, but Aso managed to get placed at 40/1 and 33/1 in 2017 and 2019.

    Six-year-olds (who seldom run) and seven-year-olds combined have won nearly twice as often as by chance (1.97 win impact value) and been placed almost two-thirds more than might be expected (1.64 place impact value) from 2005 on, accounting for an impressive 62.5% of their rivals.

    At the other end of the scale, horses aged 11 and over have failed to win and been placed only once (0.23 place impact value) over 15 years, including four horses who went off at single-figure odds.

    Cheltenham Gold Cup

    Friday, March 13th

    The Cheltenham Gold Cup’s status as the greatest race at the Cheltenham Festival, and therefore in the world of jumps racing, is under some threat if measured by ratings, following some unexceptional years by its own high standards.

    The 10-year average ratings of winners is the same as for the Champion Chase on 171, but ahead of that race for seconds (167.5) and thirds (163). Many of the sport’s greats have won the race, but Don Cossack (178 in 2016) stands out in recent years.

    Don Cossack led home a one-two-three-four for Irish-trained horses, and Ireland has won four of the last six renewals. Two of those were upsets, not just for the winners, but for placed horses: no horse starting at under 12/1 made the first three in 2014 (Lord Windermere’s year) and 12 months ago (Al Boum Photo).

    Six-year-olds (only six runners in 19 years) and seven-year-olds combined have fared best, with a win impact value of 2.03 and place impact value of 1.65, beating 62% of their rivals along the way.

    No horse aged older than nine has won this century, and 71 have tried.

    The last veteran to get placed was 10-year-old On His Own, short-headed by Lord Windermere in what was the weakest Cheltenham Gold Cup of the modern era on ratings.

    Rest of the meeting

    Tuesday to Friday

    A total of 28 races across the four days means that it is possible – indeed, advisable – to pick and choose your battles. A lengthy history for most of those 28 means that there is usually plenty of precedent to go on, also.

    The 25-furlong handicap chase, run on the Tuesday and known as the Ultima in recent times, has been around for many years and sometimes goes to a horse not far off Cheltenham Gold Cup standard.

    Seven-year-olds have fared best by age-group this century with five wins (1.49 impact value) and 16 places (1.59 impact value) from 67 of the total 384 runners for 61.4% rivals beaten.

    The Glenfarclas Cross-Country Chase on Wednesday bucks the general trend of younger being better, with horses aged 10 and older having won half of the 14 runnings and made the first three 32 times (1.16 place impact value) for 52.5% of rivals beaten.

    The legendary Tiger Roll has won the last two, and it is easy to see why experience wins out over potential more than occasionally on this challenging and idiosyncratic course.

    The 20-furlong Handicap Chase, known as the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate and run on Thursday in recent years, is more typical in having favoured five-year-olds (few of that age group have run) and six-year-olds, who together have a win impact value of 1.91, a place impact value of 1.59 and have beaten 55.0% of their rivals.

    That said, the best winner this century was the 161-rated 11-year-old Mister McGoldrick in 2008, at 66/1 the joint-longest-priced winner at the Festival this century to boot.

    The other 66/1 winner this century was the 12-year-old Croco Bay in last year’s Grand Annual Handicap Chase, a race in which it is more generally worth looking out for one of the small number of five-year-olds.

    None has won since Palarshan prevailed from out of the handicap in 2003, but four have placed this century in total (2.31 place impact value) and they have accounted for 56.6% of their rivals in that time.

    Horses aged six and under have provided the majority of runners in Friday’s Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle but also 10 of the 11 winners (1.48 win impact value), 23 of the 33 places (1.14 place impact value) and have beaten 55.9% of their rivals.