THE build-up to this year’s Derby at Epsom has been anything but uneventful, as contenders have come and gone on a regular basis, and there is now the very real prospect of the most open contest for many years. At the time of writing, no less than 20 horses are quoted at under 20/1 in one place or another.

The latest major contender to throw his hat into the ring was The Gurkha, who won the Poule d’Essai des Poulains, run at Deauville this year, in tremendous style on just his third racecourse start.

Others will have their say on whether The Gurkha is likely to get the extra half-mile of the Derby, though it is interesting to note that Timeform described his dam, Chintz, as barely staying a mile and have strong reservations about The Gurkha himself on this score.

From a form point of view, smashing up classic opposition by five and a half lengths has to make you sit up and take notice. From a time point of view, The Gurkha has rather more to prove.

This is complicated by the fact that the official time for the Poulains, as well as the official sectionals that gave rise to it, seem to have been wrong.

Independent video analysis, corroborated by timing experts in France, has The Gurkha more like 0.30s slower than the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches winner, La Cressonniere, than the official 0.97s. Either way, it was slower than for a filly on the same day who cannot realistically be rated higher than 116. My timefigure for The Gurkha is 113, and even that may be overly-positive.

The Gurkha was clearly motoring by the end, but his official 11.18s for the last 200 metres seems to have been a byproduct of a suspect 12.45s for the sectional which preceded it.

HOCQUART

On the same card, Mekhtaal won a very slowly-run Prix Hocquart by six lengths, worth a timefigure of just 69 but with some apparently very swift closing sectionals. The son of Sea The Stars is another being spoken of as a Derby contender.

In a confusing picture for the Derby, where Galileo Gold has the fastest performance on time but is an unlikely stayer even if he starts, last week’s Dante Stakes at York is probably the best guide.

Oddly, some analysts described the Dante as slowly-run, when it clearly wasn’t. Wings of Desire has solid claims at Epsom, while runner-up Deauville is in danger of being overlooked.

I also backed Cloth Of Stars after that horse won the Prix Greffulhe at Saint-Cloud in a smart time and in the manner of an improved performer. The Godolphin colt, like Wings of Desire, will need to be supplemented for the big race.

It is proving difficult enough to figure out who will be running in the Derby, let alone who will win it, even at this relatively late stage!