TRYING to make sense of wide-margin winners is something of an occupational hazard over jumps, and there were a number of such instances in big races in the last week.

“Conventional” handicapping techniques can fall down in such scenarios, whereas analysis of sectionals and overall times often come into their own. When there is little else with which to compare a performance, the immutable march of time provides a crucial benchmark.

For instance, what should we make of Cue Card’s 15-length win in the Betfair Ascot Chase? The horses he beat were not out of the top drawer, but they were no mugs, either, and Cue Card – who has a 173 timefigure to his name this season – thrashed them.

In that context, a timefigure of 163 is just a little underwhelming, but there was plenty still in the tank, and Cue Card was in no danger from soon after the home turn. At his best, he would still be the standard-setter for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, a race in which he fell three out when with every chance last year.

The main reason why Cue Card’s effort at Ascot cannot be marked more highly is that there was an even better one on the same card. Anyone doubting that Tenor Nivernais achieved all that much in winning the Keltbray Swinley Chase Handicap by 30 lengths should consider the following:

Tenor Nivernais’ time was 7.1s – or a massive 35lb – faster than 145-rated Bigbadjohn’s in winning the Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase at the same distance 35 minutes earlier; his average speed through the race was, remarkably, faster than Cue Card’s at nearly 3f shorter later on; and Tenor Nivernais’ sectionals were quicker throughout the closing stages (and especially from two out) than either of those other winners.

Time analysis should always be contextualised by what seems feasible for the horses in question in terms of form, and I have gone for a 170 timefigure for Tenor Nivernais on the back of this. An even higher figure could conceivably be justified. Even so, that makes Tenor Nivernais easily top on time in the Grand National at Aintree, where he would run from Saturday’s mark of 152, though connections of the Venetia Williams-trained gelding reportedly need some persuading to run him.

Tenor Nivernais could do with being more tractable than he was on this occasion, but ante-post odds of 50/1 are too tempting.

It would be strange, indeed, to enter the horse, see him win by half the track a few days later, then spurn such an once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.