THERE have been a number of examples in recent weeks of outsiders winning or finishing close up in races which may not have been all they seemed. But the unexpected does not automatically indicate that a given piece of form is suspect: each example must be judged on its own merits.

An example of an unexpected result which has some substance to it is last week’s Darley Irish Oaks at the Curragh. The odds-on Even Song ran poorly, and the British raider Ajman Princess ran even worse, but there are good reasons to view the 14/1 victory of Seventh Heaven with at least some positivity.

Chief among those reasons is that the filly’s overall time was smart: it was around four to five seconds faster than the two races that followed it, which is a big margin even after allowing for the differences in abilities involved.

It can also be established from sectionals that the Irish Oaks was truly run, that Seventh Heaven still finished quite quickly within that context, and that none of her rivals was significantly unlucky in terms of pacing. In addition, Seventh Heaven beat the Oaks second Architecture by a bit more than Minding had beaten her at Epsom, though, admittedly, she beat the Oaks third Harlequeen by less.

Seventh Heaven got a Timeform timefigure of 113 (I would have gone three higher), which is some way from the very best among three-year-olds this season but is a perfectly decent rating for a winner of a fillies’ classic. It was also the fastest figure by a three-year-old of either sex in the week under review. Minding (119 timefigure at her best) remains a standout among second season fillies, but Seventh Heaven is no mean performer herself. That’s what her Irish Oaks overall time and sectionals tell you.