IT is a recurring theme in this column that time analysis is at its most valuable when there is little else that is solid to go on. A horse may give a misleading impression against its rivals but the evidence of the clock is immutable and unforgiving. Or, that’s the theory.

In one sense, Masar was not especially impressive on the stopwatch in winning last week’s bet365 Craven Stakes at Newmarket but in another he was.

His overall time of 1m 38.15s was slower than might have been expected on what was drying ground and resulted in a timefigure of just 100. But his sectionals are a different matter.

FAST

I make it that his last three furlongs were run in 11.06s, followed by 11.12s and then 11.96s. Each of those is fast, especially that first sectional from three furlongs out to two furlongs out, which is about 0.46s quicker than that run at the same juncture by leading sprinters in the Abernant Stakes on the same card.

The Craven was a steady early/fast late contest, in which Masar got a pretty easy lead. But those sectionals, plus his nine-length margin over White Mocha and the previous year’s Racing Post Trophy runner-up Roaring Lion, point to him being a high-class individual, capable of winning or nearly winning the 2000 Guineas at the same course and distance just 16 days on.

There is a formula for upgrading overall times on the back of sectionals, which I devised several years ago, and it suggests that a horse running 34.14s for the last three furlongs of a mile at Newmarket in an overall time of 98.15s (107.8% finishing speed compared to average race speed) could run about 1.60s quicker had the pace been efficient from start to finish.

That would result in a 125 sectional rating in this instance for Masar, a figure good enough to have got him placed in all of the last 10 runnings of the Guineas and to have won/dead-heated in half of them. As a result, Masar has to be a bet at around 5/1 for the first colts’ classic.

It may be wondered where this incarnation of Masar has come from all of a sudden. He was a decent but not outstanding two-year-old, who finished third at Royal Ascot and on Arc Day, and he had sunk without trace at Meydan as recently as March.

But even “exposed” horses can improve from two to three – perhaps more than tends to be recognised – and Masar also showed the other day that he has a formidable weapon in his arsenal.

When he quickened after halfway in the Craven, it was not by increasing leg speed (cadence) but by lengthening his stride, which peaked at 26.5 feet by my reckoning. My, admittedly selective, records have only three horses of note with strides longer than that: Galileo (26.9 feet), Frankel (27.3 feet) and Sea The Stars (a massive 28.6 feet). That is elite company, shall we say?!

Here’s hoping that Masar gets to open his legs and show us his class again in the Guineas.