THE principles which underpin sectional analysis - of establishing what represents efficiency for the circumstances and then upgrading horses according to how close to, or far from, that they ran - applies to all levels of competition, and not just to the Fox Nortons and Trysters of the world.
There has been no shortage of encouraging efforts at a much lower grade in recent weeks, including the following.
Fox Dream went into the notebook at Dundalk last week after finishing a close fourth in the six-furlong nursery won by Little Miss Willow, getting behind from a wide draw before finishing with a flourish (last three furlongs of 34.43s, or 106.1% finishing speed).
The Augustine Leahy-trained daughter of Foxwedge has won at seven furlongs at Listowel already, and a return to that trip could see her back in the winner’s circle.
Sans Souci Bay contested what may prove a warm seven-furlong nursery at Lingfield on the same day (the timefigure was a solid one), and looked the best runner in it after finishing well from a wide draw under an inexperienced jockey, running the last two furlongs in 22.6s (106.1% finishing speed). The Richard Hannon inmate should stay a mile.
Over at Wolverhampton, Flaming Marvel made an eye-catching debut in a maiden in which all the early furlongs on the heatmap were green (indicating a slow pace) and all the late ones were red (fast finish).
Despite this, he nearly managed to come from behind to win, beaten just three-quarters of a length by the more experienced African Beat in an overall time that was respectable in the circumstances.
Flaming Marvel is trained by James Fanshawe, and so, too, is Suspect Package, who had caught the eye in a similarly-run contest half an hour earlier, fastest of all in the home straight but never nearer than his fifth at the line. This was Suspect Package’s third run in maidens, and he looks the type to make a bigger impact in ordinary nurseries.
All the above are horses who finished well, but going too fast early and weakening late is also of interest. This does not happen all that often on the flat, but more so over jumps.
Special Tiara is one who can be expected to run much better with his back-to-front Cheltenham effort under his belt, as can Ballyarthur, who did too much too soon in a handicap hurdle on the same course on Sunday and possibly raced on a slower part of the track for good measure.