YOU may have got the message over the last five years or so of my writing on these pages that confidence in time analysis is enhanced by having other races over the same course and distance on the same card with which to compare the specific race that is under scrutiny. That particularly applies to National Hunt racing.

Despite the efforts of clerks, in Britain at least, the reported effects of rail movements can be imprecise, while there is no reason to assume that the speed of the surface will be consistent throughout a track. In those respects (and a few others), time analysis often remains open to a fair degree of interpretation.

It is therefore very welcome that the pre-Christmas highlight at Sandown of the Betfair-sponsored Tingle Creek Chase is traditionally accompanied by the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase for novices over the same shortened two miles a bit earlier on the card. Time comparisons have not always reflected especially well on the seasoned pros, and that was the case again to a degree this year.

Using video-editing technology, rather than other time sources – some of which are regularly misleading – has Defi Du Seuil in the Tingle Creek running only about 0.6s (three lengths) quicker than Esprit Du Large in the Henry VIII carrying 5lb less, when a bigger differential might have been expected.

Made up ground

Sectional analysis shows that the Tingle Creek field were a dozen or so lengths ahead mid-race, but that Esprit Du Large and the Henry VIII runner-up Nube Negra made up ground hand over fist from the second-last and especially on the run-in.

Comparing those splits to historical ones which have resulted in fast relative times shows that the Tingle Creek was run at a good but not overly-strong pace: the ground the two novices made up late on looks even better in that context.

If you believe that Defi Du Seuil put up a top-notch performance then you have to think that Un De Sceaux and Waiting Patiently – a close second and third in the Tingle Creek – did likewise, and that Esprit Du Large and Nube Negra did too, at least by novice standards.

This may be the case, but I have taken a slightly more cautious view and have Defi Du Seuil – on 164 previously – running to 161 here (Un De Sceaux the same and Waiting Patiently 160), with Esprit Du Large on 157 and Nube Negra on 155.

That still has Esprit Du Large leapfrogging to the top of the novice standings, just ahead of 156-rated Samcro, but does allow the possibility of a small number of novices bettering him at some stage.

Nonetheless, I do think that Esprit Du Large is over-priced for the Arkle at 25/1 at the time of writing.

Defi Du Seuil keeps getting the job done, whether the pace is slow or fast, and he is a very tough nut to crack. But he is far from over the horizon where the Champion Chase is concerned, and I would still have Chacun Pour Soi (169), a peak-form Min, Altior (173) and Cyrname (176) ahead of him.