ASCOT SATURDAY

1315 MATCHBOOK AMATEUR RIDERS’ HANDICAP CHASE 2M 2F 175Y

Ecu De La Noverie is fancied to provide leading amateur David Maxwell with another winner in what is proving a rewarding season, and the French import has shown enough in three runs for his new yard to believe he can make hay from his current mark.

A shock winner of a novice hurdle at Newbury on his debut for Philip Hobbs, he finished in front of subsequent dual winner Ar Mest when a good second in handicap company at Lingfield, and might well have won at Haydock when switched back to fences last time, a bad error at the third last coming when he was travelling much the best. It’s also possible that he didn’t quite stay the extended two and a half miles at that track, and this intermediate trip looks more suitable given how strongly he travels.

His first attempt over British fences will have taught him plenty, and he looks the likeliest winner in this field. Maxwell is an amateur in the traditional sense, but he’s no longer the epitome of the ramrod-straight military rider he looked a few seasons back, and he’s improved his style and strength enormously in the past year.

13.50 OLBG.COM MARES’ HURDLE (WARFIELD) (GRADE 2) 2M 7F 118Y

In a tough contest, Petticoat Tails looks a little overpriced having run with credit on all three starts this season. She had wind surgery after finishing weakly at Carlisle in November, and was turned out very quickly in the circumstances when second behind Sensulano here later the same month. She was noted staying on again at the death, and while she was further behind the same mare at Cheltenham last month, she again did her best work late, and looked in need of a stiffer test.

This step-up in trip looks likely to suit on that evidence, and while she clearly needs to improve to take a hand, her wind issues seem to be behind her for now, and she appeals as capable of better as the season progresses.

14.25 MATCHBOOK HOLLOWAY’S HANDICAP HURDLE (GRADE 3) 2M 3F 58Y

He is shouldering a big weight, especially in relation to current race favourite Thosedaysaregone, but Ballymoy still makes plenty of appeal given his relentless progress as a hurdler. Winner of five of his last six races, his only defeat came in the Gerry Feilden at Newbury last month, when he was no match for the tactical speed of Global Citizen. He’s done remarkably well given that two miles is clearly a minimum to him, and it was no surprise at all to see him find further improvement when stepped up in trip at Haydock last time. This stiffer test should again see him in a better light, and any further progress will make him very hard to beat.

Thosedaysaregone landed a big gamble at Wetherby last time, and would almost certainly have won even off his revised mark, but this represents a stiffer task on account of the strength of opposition as much as his handicap rating, and he’s far from certain to appreciate the different test.

15.00 BET365 HANDICAP CHASE 2M 5F 8Y

Mr Medic didn’t quite meet market expectations in the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham, but he had moved onto the heels of the winner when making a bad blunder at the fourth last and his inability to see things out thereafter is excusable in the circumstances. That mistake doesn’t do him justice either, as he is a tremendously brave and bold jumper of a fence as a rule, and that factor has seen him improve enormously since switching disciplines.

He’s also shown a real affinity for Ascot, winning both his starts over fences here in taking style. He still appeals as being fairly handicapped despite Cheltenham, and the return to the Berkshire track is a definite bonus.

HAYDOCK SATURDAY

13.30 PATRICK COYNE MEMORIAL ALTCAR NOVICES’ CHASE (GRADE 2) 2M 3F 203Y

The presence of the promising Jerrysback in races at both Ascot and Haydock is an unwelcome complication, but while he is much respected wherever he turns up, the vote here goes to impressive Uttoxeter winner Crucial Role, who was much improved on his second start over fences when accounting for a field full of promising sorts with a bit to spare last time and that form was boosted handsomely when runner-up Now McGinty easily landed what looked a competitive novice chase at Chepstow yesterday.

Longer trips will suit him in due course (ran in last year’s Albert Bartlett for Henry Daly), but he showed plenty of gears at Uttoxeter, and looks one to keep on the right side.

14.40 THE NEW ONE UNIBET HURDLE (CHAMPION HURDLE TRIAL) (GRADE 2) 1M 7F 144Y

It’s hard to rule any of these out with all the runners capable at a high level, but none really threatening to throw down a big Champion Hurdle challenge, and tactics will be integral to the outcome. Silver Streak is the likeliest winner on form, and is thoroughly reliable to boot, but Global Citizen appeals as the one who might be best suited by circumstances. He couldn’t get away from his field in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton after making an early error, but he was far from disgraced and the form of that contest is probably underestimated in any case.

He could well be seen to advantage if getting a soft lead here, and was very impressive at Newbury before his Kempton run in similar circumstances. On the other hand, we may not see the best of either Western Ryder or Pingshou for different reasons, and that pair still appeal as capable of winning big prizes when getting suitable conditions this spring.

15.15 PETER MARSH CHASE (LIMITED HANDICAP) (GRADE 2) 3M 1F 125Y

I’m very tempted to stick with Otago Trail here for the reasons given when he ran at Ascot before Christmas, his poor effort there best forgiven on the basis that he appeared to “bounce” after running so well in the Rehearsal Chase. The Newcastle contest continues to be franked by other runners, with the front two dominating the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby and Sharp Response winning the North Yorkshire Grand National last week. Hugh Nugent also claims 7lbs which makes him look well weighted, and he is certainly the one I fear most.

The main bet is Robinsfirth, who is a horse I think a hell of a lot of, and who was due to run at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day only to be withdrawn. The fact that he’s making his return in January is an obvious concern in a race like this, but I don’t think he will lack fitness, and he’s very lightly raced for his age. On his last start at Cheltenham, he gave 15lbs and a comfortable beating to Shanroe Santos, and was due to meet that rival again on his intended return.

As it was, Lucy Wadham’s chaser finished a fine second at Cheltenham, and that pays a compliment to Robinsfirth, who would have been meeting his old rival on significantly better terms. I’ve no doubt whatsoever that he is well handicapped on a mark of 146, and if he doesn’t need the run, he will take all the beating.

RECOMMENDED

PETTICOAT TAILS 13.50 Ascot – 1pt win @ 12/1 (general)

BALLYMOY 14.25 Ascot – 1pt win @ 5/1 (general)

MR MEDIC 15.00 Ascot – 1pt win @ 8/1 (general)

ROBINSFIRTH 15.15 Haydock – 1pt win @ 6/1