FOR many months the letters A.P. featured in racing headlines virtually every day. And now, for the next few weeks in the US (and hopefully beyond), it’s another A.P. that will take the headlines as American Pharoah heads to Belmont in an attempt to become the 12th winner of the American Triple Crown and the first in 37 years.

In that period 13 horses have gone to Belmont with two in the bag but the expectation died in New York as they came up short.

Several attempts at the Crown have resulted in near-misses, like that of Smarty Jones in 2004 and Real Quiet, beaten a nose in 1998.

Top race analysis James Willoughby has described American Pharoah as maybe one of the best horses to attempt the Triple Crown, calling him the dominant colt of his generation.

Few would argue on the basis of his three-year-old campaign thus far. He looks bomb proof.

He ticks all the boxes, an imposing colt with a good temperament, he has pace whenever it is required, can lead, sit behind and seems to act on fast and wet tracks.

He was dominant in last week’s Preakness Stakes and also comes to the third leg of the Triple Crown as a much fresher horse to California Chrome last year.

This will be his fifth outing from March 14th. He also missed the end of his two-year-old campaign from September last year so could actually be getting better.

The big question is stamina. A mile and a half is a big ask for a modern American dirt horse. Win or lose - he won’t be asked to go this distance again. His pedigree strongly suggests that he won’t stay it.

Sectional time analysis reveals that despite slow overall times, American Pharoah excelled in the middle part of the races. There faces the dilemma of jockey Victor Espinoza, going for his third attempt at the Triple Crown.

Non stayers can win over distances beyond their stamina limits against lesser horses and if ridden to exploit their speed in the right part of the race.

Dictating

An example closer to home was Kerrin McEvoy’s dictating a moderate pace all the way aboard Rule Of Law (Kingmambo out of Royal Academy mare) to win the 2014 St Leger over superior stayers.

It was Northern Dancer’s trainer Horatio Luro who famously said “they all stay, it’s a question of how long it takes them.”

How the pace has been distributed in the first 10 furlongs will determine the outcome. The lead is probably the best place to be, if the rest of the riders allow Victor Espinoza to control his own pace.

James Willoughby’s assessment of American Pharoah was that “he has tractable speed; he should not lose the Belmont in the early stages like some Triple Crown aspirants have.”

He continued: “This colt has so much mid-race power than he could stagger home in the Belmont and still win.”

Real Quiet lost by a nose, Rule Of Law only held on by a head, but that’s enough to win a Triple Crown.

“26 years, one furlong away”, went the commentary for Smarty Jones.

Now 37 years further on, we have the horse again, but it’s all down to the man on top.