“I backed the wrong f*****g flower!”
The cries of one slightly disgruntled racegoer in the stand at Leopardstown after the Matron Stakes on Saturday.
That was one reaction that was on a lesser level of a general discontentment amongst punters that can only be caused by a 20/1 Ballydoyle outsider leading home a more fancied stablemate.
“What a f******g joke.”
That was the higher level.
This sort of discontentment never ceases to surprise some punters. How can Horse D beat Horse A? Unfathomable. There is no chance that this could actually happen so answers are sought elsewhere. Some bemoan the perceived madness of such a situation while others go further and allege some sort of wrongdoing.
Racing is never far away from such allegations among a portion of its legion of fans. The sport, like a lot of other sports, can never claim to be completely clean. This year's Portland UK Sport Integrity Index ranked racing 11th of 12 sports in terms of trust among members of the public.
But often this sense of unease and discontent spills over to different areas of the sport where it need not.
Before Saturday's Matron Stakes it was difficult to foresee Hydrangea beating Winter and the eight other fillies she faced. But there was a chance it could happen - a 20/1 chance, bookmakers ended up settling on.
Hydrangea had been beaten by Winter on each of her four previous outings though at this very track in April it was Hydrangea who defeated Winter by a head in a Guineas trial.
Nevertheless, it was no surprise to see the former a much bigger price than her prolific stablemate. And in turn, it was a surprise to many that Hydrangea won but that’s racing, and that’s sport. It’s the way it goes and if it didn’t, the whole thing would be a complete bore.
That Hydrangea is trained by Aidan O’Brien has little to do with it. Hydrangea won because she was the best filly on the day.
MOORE MISERY
There was a similar kind of feeling amongst punters after the earlier Group 3 Champions Juvenile Stakes - in which 11/2 shot Nelson (ridden by Donnacha O’Brien) led home 10/1 stablemate Kew Gardens (Seamie Heffernan), who in turn finished ahead of well-backed 11/10 favourite and another stablemate Delano Roosevelt (Ryan Moore).
In this case there is often a sense of bewilderment that Moore picked the wrong horse and how could this indeed happen?
Punters and bookmakers often look to jockey bookings to determine prices in such races. That of course is logical as you’re dealing with well-bred but inexperienced two-year-olds that could be at very different levels of development coming out of maiden company for the first time. But there lies the conundrum even for Ryan Moore. There is only so much you can see at home, or perhaps in Moore’s case, be told about.
Looking at each profile, watching each horse’s maiden win, it was always going to be a difficult decision to make.
Such is the quality at Aidan O’Brien’s disposal, he will often end up with four or more horses in the big races. That his third or even fourth string can win is a perfectly believable concept. That he tends to run his best in the same race, as he did in the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh on Sunday, we should be thankful for.
As the qualms of these situations are universally betting issues, perhaps a comparison with the roulette table is most apt. An equivalent to Aidan O’Brien’s multiple-runner approach in group races is perhaps the casino player putting €50 on red, €5 on black 28 and another €5 on black 33. Your main hope is for red and then, wow-wee, the ball drops on 33. That’s the way it goes.
CRACKSMAN CRACKERS
The case to run Cracksman in the Arc has been well made in recent days. He’s a three-year-old, he’s in the form of his life and he has now won over the course and distance and probably on Arc day ground.
He was excellent again yesterday in the Prix Neil, a trial for the Arc, and you’re just thinking that common sense has got to prevail here. He may well be an excellent prospect as a four-year-old but surely his main target next year will be the Arc as well, and he will struggle to have a season that will see him start shorter than 3/1 (the price he is 'Non Runner, No Bet' with some firms now) for the famous race.
I was trying to think of a suitable simile from other sports. Perhaps it’s a bit like Mayo winning their All Ireland semi-final there against Kerry and Stephen Rochford deciding to call it quits for the year. Imagine him, saying to the media: “Ah we don’t want to ruin ourselves this year - we’ll be a better team next season. We’ll come back next year instead.”