IT is somewhat peculiar that the richest handicap race, on both the flat and over jumps, in terms of prize money and tradition, is probably the most inaccurate handicap race of the year, on both the flat and over jumps.

After the five-day entry stage this morning, of the current top 40, guaranteed a run in the race, only 14 will compete off their actual BHA handicap marks. The remainder are either at an advantage or disadvantage, strictly speaking with regarded to their allotted marks, in the four-mile-two-furlong contest.

This is because the weights for the race were published way back on February 12th so trainers can run their horses without the fear of having their mark for the National rise.

The below table shows exactly which horses are best convenienced and worst inconvenienced by this system.

So strictly, Willie Mullins has two of the best handicapped horses in the race through Pairofbrowneyes and Rathvinden. The former comes out best courtesy of his five-length Leinster National win, which was huge for connections as he also needed to finish in the first four to satisfy the qualifying criteria of having won over three miles. He actually won the same race the year before but it was run at Gowran Park over a furlong shorter. Formerly trained by Barry Murphy, Pairofbrowneyes, like so many horses, has significantly progressed since moving on to Closutton and he is a real player off his mark on Saturday.

All of his wins have come on soft or heavy ground so that is a legitimate worry but he has performed well on good ground before - once in a valuable two-mile handicap chase at Cheltenham - so this issue may be getting overplayed. The Naas win was only his fifth run for Mullins, so notwithstanding his 10lb well-in mark, he could even still be improving. At 25/1 he represents decent value.

Rathvinden is generally half that price given he has an altogether more solid profile, as a proven out-and-out stayer, and is versatile with regards to ground.

A lot of people have crabbed the Tiger Roll price (7/2 across the board now) but it seems warranted to me. He is basically better than he was coming into the race last year, if not better. Then, he was a well-treated horse off the back of his Cross Country Chase win and in top form. Now, he is a well-treated horse again off a more impressive Cross Country Chase win, in probably the best form of his life, and is significantly proven around Aintree. He should drift on the morning, and any price of 6/1 of above would be more than reasonable. He is easily the horse to beat.

A very similar situation applies to Anibale Fly as well with Tony Martin’s nine-year-old set to arrive a well-handicapped horse again following a big run in the Gold Cup. However he failed to take make the most of this sort of advantage last year, albeit Barry Geraghty was criticised for charting a wide path for most of the journey.

Further down David Pipe’s Ramses Des Teillee really catches the eye on his previous two runs. He came within two lengths of beating a very well-handicapped Elegant Escape in the Welsh National and his recent second to Robinsfirth in the Grand National Trial at Haydock was an improved effort according to the handicapper so he’ll be 5lbs well in on Saturday. At the age of seven, this might just come too soon for the son of Martaline but he deserves to be on your shortlist given he has displayed strong staying credentials already.

WELL BACKED

Jury Duty has been well backed in recent days. He is 6lbs well-in on his defeat of Mala Beach at Down Royal and is another who could prosper over this longer trip, though he was well beaten when unseating in Rathvinden’s National Hunt Chase last year. The Trevor Hemmings pair of Vintage Clouds and Lake View Lad are also running off favourable terms after excellents runs to be second and third in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham.

There aren’t many horses seriously inconvenienced by the weights but it is interesting that two of the worst off are Valseur Lido and Don Poli, especially in the context of Gigginstown possibly eight runners in the race, which is a story that could escalate this week. That said, Don Poli is up for sale and it will be really interesting to see what sort of price he goes for. Presumably connections entered him in the National to make him a more attractive proposition but you’re not exactly getting much value given the 10-year-old has been pulled up twice since returning off 664-day break and was beaten 35 lengths by Jury Duty on his previous run.

Incidentally, having spoken to BHA chase handicapper Martin Greenwood, if the top 39 runners hold their ground Captain Redbeard would jump ahead of Bless The Wings to take the last spot in the race. Both horses are on the same rating for the race but the determining factor is that Captain Redbeard’s official rating has improved by 1lb since the weights for the race came out.

UNIQUE

Of course the Grand National is a unique test. It’s not much use being 10lbs well in if you can’t act around the course, over the fences or stay the trip. In essence, that’s probably the main reason Tiger Roll is so short in the betting.