Four talking points

Scene set - hopes of high attendance

Leopardstown and Horse Racing Ireland (HRI) will be hopeful attendance figures can rise for the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) this weekend, as the event is now in its third year. This was a slightly disappointing aspect to last year’s two-day meeting, when crowd figures were down, but we were still in the getting-to-know-you stage then and, considering attendances were up on all four days over Christmas at Leopardstown, the omens are good.

The weather forecast is a huge factor, with both potentially negative and positive impacts. There isn’t much rain forecast, which is obviously a great incentive for people to go racing but the ground situation is becoming more ominous, with course officials under serious pressure from owners and trainers. More on this below.

Again, the Saturday meeting clashes with a high-profile Six Nations rugby match in Dublin but, on a comparably much smaller scale, considering Ireland were Grand Slam winners and one of the World Cup favourites this time last year. What a difference 12 months can make, eh?

The game will still inevitably pull more casual racing fans away but, as Leopardstown has been doing, it is better to embrace the match rather than take it on and there should be good viewing available on the course, with the last race scheduled for 4:20pm and the match on at 4:45pm.

Grounds for concern

At the time of writing the ground at Leopardstown reads: Soft, Yielding in places on the Hurdle and Bumper course and Yielding, Yielding to Soft in places on the Chase course. If it stays like that for the weekend, everyone would be happy. However, with little rain forecast this week, it’s becoming more likely that the ground will again become a detrimental factor to the very important aspect of the quality on show, which is the biggest draw of the Dublin Racing Festival and, in essence, why the whole project was put together.

You wouldn’t blame anyone who went racing to the second day of the DRF last year for feeling a little short-changed. They would have gone there expecting to see a high quality renewal of the Irish Gold Cup, only for a 10-runner field to be whittled down to four, with all six non-runners pulled out on account of unsuitable ground conditions.

A plethora of high-profile owners and trainers have piled pressure on to Leopardstown to water extensively but it doesn’t seem that simple. I am no agronomist but, with the ground likely to freeze amid cold temperatures this week, it’s hardly going to be ideal to water. It’s a tricky situation.

Henry and Rachael

One of the main talking points of Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival was the excellent performance of both Henry de Bromhead and Rachael Blackmore who went close to winning the feature Grade 1 contest on each of the four days, with two wins and two seconds.

A good Christmas Festival bodes well for a good Dublin Racing Festival and the pair can look forward to Grade 1 favourites Honeysuckle (Irish Champion Hurdle), Aspire Tower (Spring Juvenile Hurdle) and Notebook (Irish Arkle) as well as A Plus Tard in the Dublin Chase and, pending ground conditions, a dark horse in the shape of runaway Troytown Chase winner Chris’s Dream in the Irish Gold Cup.

De Bromhead is having a big season and, although still well adrift of the big two, Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins, he clearly has the ammunition to be a real force at these big meetings which is healthy for competition. Blackmore continues to prosper and here lies another opportunity for one of Irish racing’s biggest assets to hit the headlines in the capital on what is a big weekend of Irish sport.

Cheltenham in focus

There is no three-mile Grade 1 hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival but the other three big championship distances/disciplines are covered, so expect a big Cheltenham shake-up.

Confidence seems to be growing for a Honeysuckle Champion Hurdle bid and she could force her connections to go that route should she justify favouritism in Saturday’s feature. Beating Sharjah over two miles at Leopardstown would be a fair feat, especially in the context of this year’s Champion Hurdle and, in this case, it would be even more logically sound to go for gold as such, avoiding a potential clash with the ever-impressive Benie Des Dieux in the Mares' Hurdle.

Willie Mullins could hold the key to the two big chases in the shape of both Chacun Pour Soi and Kemboy. Both failed to win here over Christmas but, significantly, both were having their first run of the campaign in Grade 1 races. You can expect both to come on significantly for the Champion trainer.

Min will likely be aimed at a third Dublin Chase in a row \Healy Racing

Four horses to follow

Min (Dublin Chase)

The current market for the Dublin Chase has a somewhat strange feel to it. Chacun Pour Soi tops it, ahead of the horse who defeated him at Christmas, A Plus Tard. Then you have another lightly-raced second season horse, Cilaos Emery.

Next in the betting is Min at 5/1. Min is the top-rated horse in this contest, has won this race for the last two years and is taking the exact same route as last year, by winning the John Durkan Chase on his way here.

He was impressive in that Punchestown contest in that he jumped poorly off his own slower pace early on, yet still held off all challengers in the straight. Back at two miles I think he will jump a lot better around a track he loves - he has finished first past the post on all four of his runs at Leopardstown.

There forever seems to be this clamouring to make him a Ryanair horse but that hasn’t been the word from Closutton, at least publicly, and I think there is a case of unfinished business for Min in the Champion Chase, following very questionable running tactics last season. In the meantime, it seems likely he will be allowed to defend his title here with Mullins pledging to be mob-handed in the race and 5/1 is too big for a horse of his class.

The Moyglass Flyer (Ladbrokes Hurdle)

This Joseph O’Brien-trained six-year-old could be the one to beat in the Ladbrokes Hurdle on Saturday, returning to the scene of his course-and-distance win at Christmas.

He travelled like much the best horse into the straight that day, before looking vulnerable after the last, when a plethora of challengers came up on his inside. However the son of Galileo’s response was impressive, and he was going away again at the line, which suggests that he was just dossing when he initially hit the front.

Out of the Group 1-winning dam Luas Line, this six-year-old has won two of his three starts and promises plenty. Drying ground will be no problem and, off an 8lb higher mark, but on just his fourth start ever, he has bundles of scope to progress further.

Ena Baie (Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle)

A lot has been said about the lack of British-trained entries this weekend but Harry Fry has never been afraid to send one to Ireland and he has a big chance with Ena Baie in the opening mares’ handicap hurdle on Sunday.

The J.P. McManus-owned mare ran a fine race in the big-field two-mile handicap hurdle at this course on St Stephen’s Day, staying on late to finish third to the Gigginstown-owned pair Fauguernon and Accidental Rebel. That was her first start of the season, so she should come on plenty and she raced like the extra two furlongs here should suit. The potential of fast ground is no problem for her and given she has had just the six starts, she has plenty of general scope to progress again.