AT the beginning of April, Aidan O’Brien told us that with the relatively warm winter his team was in a very good place, especially in contrast to 12 months before, when there was still snow on the hills at Ballydoyle.

Two Guineas and five Derby trial wins later and the results are backing up O’Brien’s judgement. The Ballydoyle bandwagon is hitting top gear and O’Brien looks to be in an ominously good position to secure a seventh Derby.

Not only is O’Brien sending out trial winners but he is sending out one-twos and one-two-threes. The opposing trainers, looking to their horses to show them enough to just warrant a run in the Derby, aren’t getting a look in. It’s total domination thus far.

Alas, the jigsaw is still there, and while the narrative is one-sided at the moment, it can all change.

2000 Guineas

Some may find it remiss to refer to the 2000 Guineas as a Derby trial, which it clearly isn’t, but is it a contest that can provide a huge insight into the Derby? Absolutely, you only have to look to Masar last year. This year’s renewal featured a lot of speed stallions and you have to go down to fourth to find a viable Derby contender - Kevin Prendergast’s Madhmoon.

Newmarket over a straight mile and Epsom over an undulating, turning mile and a half are two completely different propositions but the class angle is well worth considering. The Guineas is a classic, a Group 1, and there is the chance that some horses who run well in the race are running well in spite of the distance, which speaks volumes for their ability. It’s difficult to say that with true conviction regarding Madhmoon but he was certainly doing his best work at the end of the mile, having got outpaced coming into the Dip. Both of his two-year-old wins came over a mile, the second coming in the Champions Juvenile Stakes, form which has been significantly boosted by the exploits of Broome, himself a Derby contender.

Many will look to crab Madhmoon’s sire Dawn Approach, who flopped badly at Epsom, but that was more down to an individual trait than a genetic, considering he is by New Approach and considering he has passed on stamina to his progeny - plenty of his best performers have earned their stripes over 10 furlongs or more, not least Mary Tudor who was a close third in last year’s Irish Oaks.

Chester Vase

The correlation between the Chester Vase and the Derby is very strong in the past decade, Aidan O’Brien being the common denominator. Treasure Beach, Ruler Of The World, U S Army Ranger and Wings Of Eagles have all prospered to an extent in both races, while outside of those Ballydoyle colts, Dee Ex Bee and Storm The Stars hit the frame at Chester and Epsom.

For that reason the manner of Sir Dragonet’s eight-length win is all the more significant. By all means, this son of Camelot is a surprise package at Ballydoyle, considering he was sent off at 14/1 for his maiden win at Tipperary just two weeks before Chester but he has an imposing Derby profile now, as a standout trial winner and with his pedigree, and he is very likely to be supplemented.

What he lacks for in inexperience, he more than makes up for in scope and he probably is the one colt with the potential to blow the field away at Epsom. However, with just one real big performance, you’re entitled to wonder if it is believable, and whether the soft ground it was achieved on, played a big part.

The runner-up Norway achieved plenty as a two-year-old as well and ought to come on for his first run. He could easily line up at Epsom also, but at the moment it’s hard to make a case for him turning the form.

Dee Stakes

Over two furlongs shorter, the Dee Stakes graduates haven’t fared as well as those of the Chester Vase in recent times, and that is a trend that looks like continuing this year. It was another one-two for Aidan O’Brien, Circus Maximus getting the better of Mohawk, but arguably the runner-up deserved more credit, having conceded the winner 5lbs.

Both colts shape like the step up to mile and a half will suit but neither seemed to enhance their form from last year, where they ran to a decent but not spectacular level. Fox Chairman, the third, was the horse many people felt was the one to take out of the race however although not getting a clear run, you could hardly say he would definitely have won. He doesn’t have a Derby entry and probably didn’t show enough to prompt connections to think about stumping up a supplementary fee.

Lingfield Derby Trial

This trial hasn’t produced a Derby winner since High Rise in 1988 but it has a better-than-usual candidate in the shape of Anthony Van Dyck this year. The Galileo colt travelled smoothly, got a nice run on the inside and picked up nicely late on to allay any stamina fears (out an Exceed And Excel mare). That bare result doesn’t tell the whole story with him however as he was sent off 2/1 here, a big price in the context of his two-year-old form which was head and shoulders above his rivals for this listed race. The price was more indicative of a setback he had, which was reported by O’Brien pre race and for that reason, he can be marked up.

He did a lot of his winning right in the middle of when the Ballydoyle horses were running poorly last season and he showed top class form behind Quorto and Too Darn Hot in the two big two-year-old races in Ireland and Britain. He is a live contender for the Derby now but prices of 8/1 do look a bit skinny.

Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial

There is also a long gap back to the last Derrinstown winner to go on and win at Epsom (High Chaparral, 2002) but there have been plenty of placed horses in both races. This race is often the second race for a colt en route to the Derby, the Ballysax Stakes over the same course and distance being the first, and that is the path followed by Broome. Although not as impressive as he was in the Ballysax, where he dealt admirably with a strong early pace to win by eight lengths, the Australia colt put up a likeable performance again, asserting late in the final furlong to win comfortably.

The proximity of the 86-rated Blenheim Palace in second would have you question the form but there is no doubt Broome was well on top here and more significantly, he races lazily, like a colt who could switch off and handle Epsom well.

DANTE?

And so we look to the Dante, not for the first time, hoping that something substantial can transpire on the Knavesmire. Usually that is for a top class colt to emerge, perhaps after a series of misfiring trials. This time around, the hope is just for one semblance of opposition, so the Derby narrative can be extended beyond the fields of Ballydoyle.

In Too Darn Hot, the champion two-year-old, there is cast-iron potential. Surfman and Telecaster are two wide margin novice stakes winners who could be anything. And yet, O’Brien is in again with Japan, the horse that was touted to be his best Derby candidate at the beginning of the season. It would be unprecendented and somewhat remarkable if Japan completed the set of Derby trial winners for O'Brien.