Anthony Van Dyck: Built on very promising comeback run in Lingfield Derby Trial to outpoint his stablemates and Madhmoon in a bunch finish at Epsom, despite meeting a little interference on his way home. He actually held the highest rating as a juvenile in the Derby field, despite not winning at the top level last season. Clearly stays the trip and faster ground no problem, fair chance he can confirm form now, but it could be close again.
Broome: One-from-five record as a juvenile but progressed through the season, which culminated in a runner-up finish in Group 1 Prix Jean Luc Lagardere at Longchamp. Continued that progression when an emphatic eight-length winner of the Ballysax Stakes and returned to Leopardstown to record an authoritative, if not as emphatic, win in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. Fourth at Epsom after producing a long-raking, uninterrupted run down the outside and not much to find now with the Curragh likely to suit his galloping style.
Guaranteed: Battle-hardened son of Teofilo comes into this off probably his best effort in all of his 10 runs when a game winner of the 10-furlong Silver Stakes at this track earlier in the month. Stepping up to 12 furlongs for the first time but will need it to bring about improvement as he has plenty to do with the main contenders, not least Broome who comfortably had his measure in the two Leopardstown trial races earlier this season.
Il Paradiso: Only broke his maiden at Leopardstown last month, his first start at three and his fourth overall. That race has worked out well with the likes of Harpo Marx, Building Bridges and Trossachs, who won again here on Thursday night, all boosting the form. However, it still leaves this son of Galileo with plenty to find and he is essentially only running here as a sporting gesture to each-way punters by John Magnier.
Madhmoon: Unbeaten in two starts at two, the second of which was a highly impressive win in Champion Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown on Irish Champions Weekend. Lost his winning record in a 2000 Guineas trial back at Leopardstown for first start this term but left that well behind him when fourth on the wrong side at Newmarket. Defied any stamina doubts with surging run to the front at Epsom where he may well have hit the front a little sooner than his rider may have wanted, after being lit up by stumbling on the turn in, so could easily have won on another day. It’s also reasonable to suspect he could improve again given this is just his sixth start. Big chance.
Norway: No match for Sir Dragonet in the Chester Vase but fared better at Epsom where he chased the pace-setting Sovereign and boxed on when passed in the straight. Disappointed then in Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot but had little chance when racing from off the pace there. Still has plenty to do now, and while there is a suspicion that the best has yet to come from him, he may need a longer trip to find that improvement.
Rakan: Well-beaten by Norway when making his debut in Naas maiden last year but improved significantly for that run when winning a mile maiden nicely at Leopardstown. Four-length fourth to Broome on his comeback in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial but again improved for second run when upped to this trip in the King George V Cup, defeating Barbados and Eminent Authority, who franked that form by finishing second and fifth in the Queen’s Vase. Beautifully bred colt, by Sea The Stars out of his trainer’s Oaks runner up Tarfasha, has a lot to do on ratings but is the least exposed in the field so has the scope to find that improvement. Could easily upset a few.
Sovereign: Ran out a 14-length winner of a Galway maiden on his third start as a juvenile but was just found wanting when moving into Group 2 and Group 3 level for his next two runs. Essentially that was the case again on his first two runs this season, although he did okay to chase home Broome twice at Leopardstown. Set the pace at Epsom and likely to be employed to do so again today.
Conclusion:
There really isn’t much between the Epsom one-two-four, Anthony Van Dyck, Madhmoon and Broome, who dominate the market. The missing horse from that sequence is Japan, who was an impressive winner at Royal Ascot, solidifying the Derby form in doing so.
For many, the heart says Madhmoon, but the head can say him too. The son of Dawn Approach stumbled on the turn in at Epsom which forced Chris Hayes to let him go earlier than ideal, and you have to remember that was just his fifth ever run. He has more scope to improve than the main Ballydoyle duo.
Of the remainder, Rakan is clearly the biggest hope of an upset. The form of his Leopardstown win was boosted at Ascot and he is the least exposed horse in the field, this being just his fifth ever run.