IT is something of a peculiarity that today’s Grand National, the most famous handicap chase in racing, holds probably the most inaccurate handicap you’ll see all year.
This is usually the case as the National is an early closing race, with this year’s weights framed way back on February 12th. The result of that is any horse who runs after the weights are published can win or run above his actual rating, without fear of receiving a hike in the weights for the National. On the other side, if you run poorly after the weights have been published, your horse will not come down the weights and so is at a disadvantage.
The adjacent table shows the horses who are best and worst handicapped for this year’s National. Market principals Tiger Roll, Rathvinden and Anibale Fly are all significantly well treated. Tiger Roll won the Cross Country Chase by 22 lengths, which saw British handicapper Martin Greenwood move him up to a mark of 167, which wouldn’t be far away from Gold Cup class.
CLASS
A horse with Gold Cup class is Anibale Fly, and he now rates as high as 172 following his excellent run to finish second at Cheltenham. Rathvinden also enhanced his profile with a comeback win in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse, while Jury Duty is 6lbs better off for his defeat of Mala Beach at Down Royal.
Surprisingly, connections of Pairofbrowneyes opted to not declare the 10-year-old on Thursday preferring to go for the Irish Grand National instead. A Leinster National winner on his previous start, Pairofbrowneyes would have been the best treated horse in the race, 10lbs well in after his Naas win.
Ramses De Teillee can rate a lively outsider for the home team. David Pipe’s seven-year-old ran second to Robinsfirth in a Grand National Trial at Haydock after the weights were published. The Trevor Hemmings pair Vintage Clouds and Lake View Lad are also 5lbs and 3lbs well in respectively after their good runs to be second and third to Beware The Bear in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham.
On the other hand, Don Poli and Valseur Lido are among the worst treated horses in the field. Don Poli, who was sold for £170,000 in the Aintree parade ring on Thursday, disappointed in the aforementioned Down Royal race won by Jury Duty whereas Valseur Lido struggled when taking on Rathvinden in the Bobbyjo before running poorly after making a mistake at Cheltenham.