FIRST the ground, then the draw. If Saxon Warrior goes and wins today’s Investec Derby, he will have done it despite the circumstances, not because of them.

The ground was soft when Aidan O’Brien’s horse won the Beresford Stakes at Naas last September, and it was good to soft when he won the Racing Post Trophy. But it was good when he won the Guineas, when he put up the best performance of his life to date.

His trainer was worried about the ground before the Beresford, and Ryan Moore said afterwards that the soft conditions were not ideal for him, despite the fact that he won. The ground was firm when his sire Deep Impact won the Japan Cup, and it was also firm when he won the Arima Kinen on his last run, when he achieved the highest Timeform rating of his career.

Saxon Warrior’s dam Maybe never raced on firm ground, but she won her maiden on her racecourse debut on the only occasion on which she raced on good to firm, and she put up the best performance of her career in winning the Moyglare Stud Stakes on good ground.

Good ground would have been ideal for Saxon Warrior today on his first foray beyond a mile. Easy ground is not ideal.

His draw in stall one is also tricky. They turn to the right after they have gone a furlong and a half in the Derby, which means that the low-drawn horses have to either drop in or utilise valuable energy on the run up the hill, widest of all, in order to secure a prominent position.

That right-hand kink about 10 and a half furlongs from Epsom’s famed winning post is probably the reason why a low draw is a negative over a mile and a half, but a positive over a mile and a quarter.

It can be done. You can win a Derby from stall one.

Oath won from stall one in 1999, Roberto won from stall one in 1972, Blakeney won from stall one in 1969. But that’s it. Just three winners from stall one since stalls were first used for the Derby in 1967. Three from 51, and none since 1999. Indeed, no horse who has emerged from stall one has managed to finish in the first three in the Derby in the last decade.

That said, Saxon Warrior’s Guineas win represents the best piece of form in the race by some way. And it is probable that a mile is sharper than ideal for him, and that he will progress for his Guineas run, his seasonal debut.

Also, if you could choose a trainer who could design a plan that would mitigate the potential impact of a poor draw, you would choose Aidan O’Brien. And if you could choose a man to implement said plan, you would choose Ryan Moore. It is a fascinating challenge that they face, and it all adds to the intrigue of the race.