IT is understandable that most of the Grand National talk this week was about Many Clouds. The 2015 winner put up a fine performance to land the three-mile chase at Aintree last Saturday in which he was beaten by Don Poli last year. He finished well down the field in the National last April, but the magic of the wind op appears to have done the trick and, given that he is owned by Trevor Hemmings, it is not surprising that all anyone could say afterwards was Grand National.
It is not going to be easy for Many Clouds this season though. He is rated 166 now, 6lb higher than the mark off which he won the National in 2015 and the last horse to win two Nationals was Red Rum. And he’s the 14/1 and 16/1 favourite.
In all the Many Clouds furore, the National claim that Vieux Lion Rouge staked in winning the Becher Chase may have gone a little under the radar. A lot of the talk centred around runner-up Highland Lodge. True, you did have to feel for Jimmy Moffatt’s horse, leading or disputing for three miles, one furlong and 178 yards of the three-mile, one-furlong, 188-yard trip in his bid to land back-to-back runnings of the Becher. But that didn’t detract from the performance that Vieux Lion Rouge put up in winning the race.
David Pipe’s horse got into a lovely rhythm from early for Tom Scudamore. Kicked off out the back of the field and towards the outside, he moved himself into a nice position just behind the leaders as they set out on their final full circuit, the point in the race at which, the rider informed us afterwards, he starts to ride his race.
Vieux Lion Rouge jumped the big fences really well again as he did in the Grand National last April. He travelled well down the side of the track, moved easily into the home straight, and stayed on up the run-in to get up and win by a short-head.
He is only seven. Seven-year-olds don’t win the Becher Chase. Silver Birch is the only seven-year-old to win the race in the last 20 years, and the average age of the 10 winners before last Saturday was 10.2.
Seven-year-olds don’t win the Grand National either. You have to go back to Bogskar in 1940 for the last seven-year-old who prevailed, and 1940 is 76 years ago.
That makes Vieux Lion Rouge’s run in the 2016 Grand National all the more commendable. He travelled well for much of the race and, crucially, as on Saturday, he jumped the fences fluently. He was right there in the leading group in last season’s National and going strongly when they joined the racecourse proper again with two fences to jump, but he just faded from there, as his youth probably told.
The handicapper dropped him 4lb for his National run to a mark of 142, the same amount by which he raised him again for winning the Becher Chase. So, all things being equal, he could run in the National again this season as an eight-year-old off a mark of 146, the same mark as that off which he ran so well last April as a seven-year-old.
In contrast, eight-year-olds have a good recent record in the National. Many Clouds won it as an eight-year-old in 2015, the first eight-year-old winner since Bindaree, and eight-year-olds filled two of the four places last season. Vieux Lion Rouge should be better equipped for the race this season with another year’s maturing under his belt.
David Pipe can train him now specifically for the National, secure in the knowledge that a mark of 146 should get him safely into the race on a nice racing weight. The Sabiango gelding is at his best when he is fresh, as evidenced by the fact that he has now won four times out of five on his seasonal debut, so it was encouraging to hear his trainer say after Saturday’s race that he would probably go straight to the National.
The 25/1 that is generally available still looks more than fair. You can easily argue that he should be a fair bit shorter than that, that he could be up there with Many Clouds disputing favouritism.