WE get the first definitive steer on the relative merits of the new three-year-old middle-distance crop when they run the Eclipse. Three three-year-olds lined up in last Saturday’s Coral-sponsored event, and two of them finished first and second, almost two lengths clear of the third horse, the first older horse home, Time Test.

History tells us that it is not easy for a three-year-old to win the Eclipse. In the decade that preceded Hawkbill’s victory on Saturday, just two three-year-olds had won it: Golden Horn and Sea The Stars. The former had won the Derby, and went on to win the Irish Champion Stakes and the Arc, while the latter was just a superstar who won everything.

And it is not as if three-year-olds do not try to win the Eclipse. In those 10 years, 22 three-year-olds ran in the Eclipse, as against 29 four-year-olds and 24 older horses. With just those two wins and three places, three-year-olds had the worst win and place strike rate by a fair way.

Roll back to the start of the millennium, and you get just two other three-year-old winners: Oratorio, who went on to win the Irish Champion Stakes, and subsequent 11-length Lockinge Stakes winner Hawk Wing.

It is still early days in the 2016 season, but the Eclipse could be a forerunner to a three-year-old sweep this year. This year’s classic crop of middle-distance horses look very good.

To Hawkbill and The Gurkha, add Harzand and Idaho and Minding and US Army Ranger. Add the French filly La Cressonniere if you like. Postponed stands out as the top older horse at present, and he is joined by Found and Fascinating Rock and perhaps Order Of St George if he drops back down in trip, but the three-year-olds continue to progress. And remember, they retain a significant weight allowance for the occasions on which they come up against their elders over middle-distances.

And it could be a similar situation among the milers. The Gurkha straddles both divisions, but it looks like the near-perennial Duel on the Downs for the Sussex Stakes will be between two three-year-olds this year, not a three-year-old and an older horse, and you shouldn’t dismiss Awtaad on the back of one defeat.

At least the sprinting division is safe for the elders. Unless, of course, Air Force Blue or Quiet Reflection or even Washington DC wins the July Cup this afternoon.