THERE are a couple of other anomalies at the other end of the scale. Tiger Roll’s Grand National rating is 7lb higher than his Irish rating, Wounded Warrior’s is 3lb higher, Ucello Conti’s is also 3lb higher.
Maggio’s is 4lb higher. Maggio’s higher mark means that he is safely into the race, joint 31st in the list and therefore well in under the safety limit of 40. However, if the Griffins’ horse had been allotted his Irish mark of 146 he would have been joint 53rd, and he still would have been long odds-on to get a run but he would have had 4lb less to carry. Last year, number 59 on the list at the same stage got into the race. The year before, number 67 at this stage got a run.
A little bizarrely, Gallant Oscar has been given a Grand National rating of 143, 3lb lower (sic.) than his Irish mark. That looks unusually lenient but, paradoxically, it is not a positive. It leaves the Tony Martin/J.P. McManus horse down the list, joint 69th and odds-against to get a run. If his Grand National mark was the same as his Irish mark, he would have been joint 53rd and odds-on to get a run. If it had been 2lb or 3lb higher, like a lot of his compatriots, he would have been certain to get a run.
By contrast, Highland Lodge has been given a Grand National mark of 148, 8lb higher than his official BHA mark. That leaves him joint 41st on the list and just about certain to get a run, as opposed to joint 75th, which he would have been if he had been allotted his BHA mark and unlikely to get in.
It’s great for Jimmy Moffatt, fair play to him. It must have been agonising to just miss out last year as he did. However, Highland Lodge’s significantly inflated mark does not make much sense from a handicapping point of view.
You can cite the Aintree factor all you like, you can point to the fact that Highland Lodge was last season’s Becher Chase winner and this season’s Becher Chase runner-up. You can claim that it is worth 8lb.
But, if that is the case, how come The Last Samuri, runner-up in last year’s Grand National and third in this season’s Becher Chase, is getting to race off a Grand National mark that is the same as his official BHA mark? No inflation for the Aintree factor. And how come Saint Are, an Aintree stalwart and second in the 2015 National, gets to race off his BHA mark of 147, which leaves him joint 47th on the list and almost certain to get a run?
There are too many tweaks this year that do not make sense from a handicapping point of view, from a common sense point of view. It is time to stop the tweaking in the Grand National, allow each horse race off his or her true handicap mark. Leave the Grand National weights alone. Seriously. You can still have the launch party but let them race off their official handicap ratings.