ONCE again we are indebted to Timeform and to Simon Rowlands for the provision of sectional times for the July Cup at Newmarket on Saturday.
The figures tell you what you suspected from watching the recording: that the race was relatively slowly run, that those horses who raced up with the pace were advantaged by the manner in which the race was run.
The winner Harry Angel was in the front rank from early. He shared that front rank with 100/1 shot Intelligence Cross, who had over a stone to find on the figures and who, ultimately, was only beaten a total of just over two lengths.
Runner-up Limato was never that far away. Third-placed Brando and fourth-placed Caravaggio, by contrast, raced in rear through the early stages of the race, and they are the interesting ones.
Harry Angel was obviously very good, he sat stone cold in the front rank with Intelligence Cross instead of racing him, as he had at Ascot. He picked up nicely for Adam Kirby on the run to the furlong pole and, from that point, it never looked likely that he would be beaten.
There is obviously a good chance that he was the best horse in the race on the day at the track anyway, that he would have won however the race had been run. But he is now regarded as such. For example, Clive Cox’s horse has been put in at no bigger than 7/4 for the Sprint Cup at Haydock in September, while Caravaggio is available at 8/1 and Brando is available at 10/1.
At the very least, it is reasonable to conclude that both Brando and Caravaggio would have got closer to Harry Angel had the race been run at a faster pace. They both ran faster through the final three furlongs than the winner did.
In the Commonwealth Cup at Ascot, Caravaggio was stronger through the final furlong than Harry Angel was, off a stronger pace and at a stiffer track.
Perhaps Harry Angel went too fast too early at Ascot, perhaps the Godolphin horse improved from Ascot to Newmarket.
But at present, on the evidence that we have to date, it is impossible to conclude which horse is better. The score is one-one.
However, recency bias being a thing and all, when they meet next time, and hopefully they will meet next time, there is a chance that the disparity in their respective odds will be greater than it should be, and that, consequently, Caravaggio will represent the value.
Brando is just as interesting as Caravaggio. He was a 28/1 shot going into the race having finished last of 12 in the Duke of York Stakes on his last run before Saturday. There’s that recency bias again.
But he broke a blood vessel at York, and he is never at his best on the Knavesmire anyway. He hasn’t won there in six attempts and, in the two group races that he contested there, he has finished ninth and 12th.
Winner of the Ayr Gold Cup last year and third in the Group 1 British Champions Sprint at Ascot, Kevin Ryan’s horse looked very good in winning the Abernant Stakes on his debut this season, and he probably stepped forward from that on Saturday.
He could still be an under-rated horse and, probably at his best with a little bit of cut in the ground, he will be interesting as we move into the autumn.