SHOULD have backed Lil Rockerfeller in the Matchbook Betting Podcast Handicap at Goodwood, of course. Easy in hindsight. He was racing off a flat rating that was 71lbs lower than his hurdles rating. If you take it that a National Hunt rating should be close enough to a flat rating plus 40 or 45, then Neil King’s horse was 25lbs or 30lbs well-in compared to his hurdles rating.

Should have backed him at 11/4, or at his morning odds of 7/2. Fair play to you if you did.

But there was a case to be made against Lil Rockerfeller. On the previous occasion on which he ran on the flat, in May 2015, he was beaten off a mark of 76. Back then, he was rated 143 over hurdles. That’s 67lbs higher than the flat mark off which he was beaten.

He is now rated 153 over hurdles, so in theory he is 10lbs better over hurdles now than he was then. And he was racing off a flat mark of 82 at Goodwood. So 6lbs higher than the flat mark off which he was beaten the last time he ran on the flat. So, as above, he was 71lbs lower than his hurdles mark.

But he was beaten off a mark that was 67lbs lower the last time he tried. You could have argued that he might not have had that much in hand. And he was short.

ABILITY

Of more relevance is the fact that there is often no correlation between ability on the flat and ability over hurdles. That is why there is no set formula for calculating one from the other. They are different disciplines. It would be like giving Johnny Sexton a hurley.

And you could have argued that Lil Rockerfeller was the type of horse – a headgear-wearing 32-time-raced seven-year-old who usually needs a ride – who might need a flight of hurdles or two to keep him interested.

There are myriad examples of horses who are significantly better under one code than they are under the other. Case in point: Max Dynamite. Willie Mullins’ horse has won a Lonsdale Cup and he has finished placed in two Melbourne Cups, beaten a half a length in one of them. He is rated 110 on the flat. So, in theory, using the 40lb or 45lb theorem, he should have between 12lbs and 17lbs in hand when he races over hurdles.

And yet, he is zero for six in handicap hurdles. Indeed, he has won just one of his 11 races over obstacles, on his debut for Mullins in a maiden hurdle at Thurles in November 2014.

Lil Rockerferller won by 15 lengths. Nothing like the result of a race to ruin a good argument.

SPEAKING of Rockerfellers, John D Rockefeller (no need for the middle R) was a great man for the odd inspirational quote. Here are three of his most profound:

1. A friendship founded on business is better than a business founded on friendship. 2. Don’t be afraid to give up the good to go for the great. 3. If a handicap rating on the flat looks too good to be true, there is a fair chance that it is.