AS Oscar Wilde or Winston Churchill or The Indigo Girls or someone once surely said, the Derby picture is now twice as cloudy as it was the day before, when we went into the Dante seeking clarity.

The first problem with the Dante in the context of the Derby was that Cracksman didn’t run in it. He was withdrawn on the morning of the race because of the soft ground. (Which, incidentally, as things transpired, probably wasn’t as soft on the Knavesmire as people were saying. The name doesn’t help. Knavesmire. It would be like naming a rottweiler Cuddles and trying to convince people that he was fierce).

The second problem with the Dante in the context of the Derby was that it was won by Permian. Not that Permian isn’t a good horse, he obviously is, he has now followed up in the Dante after running out an impressive winner of the Listed Newmarket Stakes at the Guineas meeting. The problem is that he doesn’t fit the profile of Dante winners who go on to win the Derby. He was beaten by Cracksman in the Epsom Derby Trial in April. He was beaten in a handicap at Bath on his debut this season.

The other problem is that Mark Johnston’s horse isn’t even in the Derby. He probably will be supplemented, but he will have to be. Actually, he wasn’t even in the Dante at the original entry stage, he had to be supplemented to the Dante too.

You can argue that he is over-priced at 16/1 for the Derby, that his chance is better than that, but he is still a 16/1 shot.

If Cracksman or Rekindling or even Crystal Ocean had won the Dante, that would have shaped the picture nicely. But with Permian winning it, you can throw that old canvas on the floor and start again.

The post-Dante Derby market moves centred around those who didn’t run in the trail, and that is rarely a positive for a trial. Cracksman was promoted to favouritism in some lists, as the market took surely too literal a line on his collateral form with Permian. Surely Permian improved from his defeat in Epsom’s Derby Trial to Newmarket, and then to York.

Dee Stakes winner Cliffs Of Moher was shortened, Guineas sixth Eminent was shortened. Of course, Guineas winner Churchill was a ready-made Derby favourite, but it looks like he will eschew the Derby and stick to a mile, the Gleneagles Irish Guineas/St James’s Palace Stakes route instead so it’s all up for grabs.