THERE have been three Aintree Grand Nationals run now since they softened the bellies of the fences, moved the start to the far side of the Melling Road and decided that, actually, it was a four-and-a-quarter-mile race, not a four-and-a-half-mile race at all.

Three is a small sample size, but there is little doubting that the National is at least a slightly different race now to the race that it used to be, so it is worthwhile having a look at those three renewals and trying to glean what you can from them.

We know that the best indicator of what might happen in the future is what actually happened in the past.

So, in those three renewals, two of the three winners and five of the nine placed horses were 10 years old or older, while eight of the nine placed horses were aged nine or older. Also, two of the three winners and four of the nine placed horses carried 10st 7lb or less, with eight of the nine placed horses carrying 10st 13lb or less.

Conclusion? We are still looking for an older horse who is set to carry a relatively low weight.

A horse aged nine or more but ideally aged 10 or more, who is set to carry 10st 13lb or less or, even better, 10st 7lb or less.

You can shoe-horn 25/1 shot Shutthefrontdoor in there if you want to, a nine-year-old who is set to carry 10st 11lb, and you might want to, given how well he ran last year as an eight-year-old for A.P. McCoy, and given that he was keener than ideal, which was understandable on his first run for five months.

You don’t need a shoe-horn for another 25/1 shot though in Saint Are, a 10-year-old who is set to carry 10st 5lb, who excels at the track and in the spring, whose latest run was probably a career-best and who is 4lb well-in.