WITH four weeks to go to the Festival, one of the most confusing races to work out is the Triumph Hurdle.

The juvenile hurdle at Sandown last Saturday, won by Alan King’s Pain Au Chocolat, was another pretty farcical event with no one wanting to make the running and no pace until Gorman revolted and ran off.

Again, as at Cheltenham the previous week, we had jockeys playing ‘after you sir’, waiting for someone else to make the running even if a slow pace would also compromise the chances of their own mount. Can races not be won from the front? Richard Johnson thankfully showed they can on Garde La Victoire in the next.

Another of the leading Triumph contenders in that following race, Bristol De Mai didn’t look the potential star that he had done at Chepstow, favourite Peace And Co carries his head high (as good a reason as any to take him on at the odds), and wasn’t thoroughly convincing at Cheltenham, Hargam won nicely with ears pricked in lesser company at Musselburgh.

Kalkir’s form took a knock with Fiscal Focus’ eclipse behind Hurricane Fly, and the Irish number one challenger should emerge at Leopardstown tomorrow.

With two wins from two runs Peace And Co is favourite at 7/4, with nothing else shorter than 7/1. Despite the fact that the Triumph Hurdle has become a much classier race, with the average starting price around 8/1, only one favourite has won in the last 18 years.

With so little form lines and the main contenders participating in unsatisfactory races, bearing little resemblance to the test the Triumph will provide, it’s not a race to get too involved in. Cheltenham contenders are running less than in previous years but with older horses, at least you have a few years form to get a handle on their level of ability.

Getting involved in a juvenile contest where many horses will have only had two runs, looks a recipe for trouble. Remember all the drama of the final day last year? This year the Triumph opens the action on Friday the 13th. Beware.