WELLCHILD CHELTENHAM Gold CUP

AL Boum Photo aims to emulate Cottage Rake, Arkle and Best Mate by winning a third Gold Cup, and he sets the standard, for all it’s not the most exacting.

In fact, the form of his last two wins demonstrates how weak the division is currently, and Timeform don’t rate either as a career high for him. Ironically, his best effort on Timeform figures is his defeat at the hands of stablemate Kemboy at Punchestown in 2019.

In fairness to the nine-year-old, racing only at Tramore and in the Gold Cup itself since then has limited his ability to post a big figure, and in keeping his powder dry, Willie Mullins has promoted the possibility that he could be better than ever.

While not everyone was blown away by his win in the New Year’s Day Chase, he stretched his advantage over Acapella Bourgeois to 19 lengths compared to six in 2020, and his stablemate showed himself every bit as good as ever when winning his second Bobbyjo Chase recently.

So, Al Boum Photo seems to be operating at his peak still, and the combination of his course form and lack of mileage should enable him to run to a similar level to the past two years, and that means that something will need to improve to beat him in the Gold Cup.

That makes it hard to fancy any of those behind him in the last two years, with the possible exception of Kemboy for the reasons stated in the opening paragraph. That horse needs to prove himself at Cheltenham, but he clipped heels when coming down at the first in this race in 2019, and it’s worth bearing in mind that he needs to be forgiven one poor display, rather than two.

Of those not already held by the favourite on course and distance form, Frodon and A Plus Tard are Grade 1 winners this season, while Champ won the Grade 1 Broadway Novices’ Chase (RSA) on his penultimate outing.

They are the closest challengers in the market, and much as I love Native River and Minella Indo, I think the market is broadly correct here. Native River remains a force when able to dominate, but he couldn’t dominate in this race two years ago, and he will face plenty of competition for the lead again here.

I feel he can overcome that when the ground is testing, as he showed at Sandown last time, but I doubt it will be deep enough for him next week. Minella Indo was my idea of this race at the start of the season, but he didn’t come up once when Rachael Blackmore asked him in the Irish Gold Cup, and he won’t be competitive if jumping like that again.

Better shape

Champ took the unusual step of prepping for this in the Grade 2 Game Spirit over two miles at Newbury, and ran a very pleasing race to be second. His jumping was ragged at times here last year, but he makes a much better shape when asked to take his fences with momentum as was the case at Newbury.

The problem for him is that when he’s allowed his head at his fences, he can get lit up, and he was ridden to prevent that in the RSA, with ultimately successful results. The problem connections have is whether they maximise his jumping and have his stamina put under severe pressure, or whether to conserve his stamina and risk him jumping stickily. Both are compromises which could lose him the race, and that puts me off him.

My other concern is that he can get a little high behind when jumping freely, and I’d worry that his back end could overtake his front if he clips a fence at speed.

A Plus Tard is a revelation as a stayer, given he was able to beat Chacun Pour Soi over two miles last season. He ran well in the Ryanair, but his downfall there was the fact that while he made no serious mistakes, he tended to be slower away from his fences than the pair who beat him.

Ironically, that style of jumping is probably an advantage in a Gold Cup, where his rider won’t want to have to rein him in, and jumping cleanly and carefully will enable him to conserve his undoubted speed for the latter stages, which gives him a theoretical advantage over Champ in that regard.

A Plus Tard did well to win the Savills Christmas Chase at Leopardstown, where he had to work extremely hard to bridge the gap between the long-time leaders and the main pack. The way he did that pretty much proves he will stay, and the way the Gold Cup is run won’t demand him to that work alone. I like his prospects a lot.

Frodon’s chance lies in Bryony Frost being able to hoodwink her rival jockeys as she did in the King George, and she needs to be able to slow this down mid-race if her mount is to stay the trip having shown his best form over shorter in previous seasons.

I don’t think that will be allowed to happen, especially when the tactics are now no secret, and I’m afraid Frodon will struggle as a result.

A Plus Tard looks capable of finding the improvement needed to topple the hat-trick-seeking Al Boum Photo, who nonetheless merits maximum respect. Champ has the ability to beat the pair, but sacrificing his speed will likely affect his jumping, and allowing him his head may compromise his suspect stamina.

SelectS

1. A Plus Tard

2. Al Boum Photo

3. Champ