Abacadabras

Champion Hurdle

First thing’s first – it’s important to understand that there is more than one way to make a profit at Cheltenham, and it’s not simply a case of picking winners, which is handy in the first instance, as I’m not at the front of the queue of people who’d want to back Abacadabras in a win-only market.

The seven-year-old has long looked suspect in a finish, including when saying “after you” to Shishkin in last year’s Supreme, but few will travel better through the Champion, and I expect him to be one of the last off the bridle.

Hit the frame

A few will underperform, and I’d expect him to hit the frame without winning. You could back him place only, but I’d be tempted to stick him in an exacta underneath Honeysuckle.

If you fancy Epatante, or Goshen, then stick him under them, or as a banker for trifectas if you want to really hit the jackpot.

Sceau Royal

Queen Mother Champion Chase

Another one who can’t realistically win, but is overpriced for a place and can boost exotics, is Sceau Royal in the Champion Chase. He outjumped Altior in 2019 but was outmuscled up the run-in, and that tends to be his story.

He flopped a year ago, but he’s better than ever this year, and is a strong-travelling sort who jumps slickly, and is a safer conveyance than a few of these. Sure Nube Negra and First Flow are tempting for win purposes after beating former champions on their most recent starts, but their connections deliberately missed Cheltenham for a reason last year, and Notebook blotted his copybook in the Arkle.

I’ll not tell you who to include in your exotics, but putting Sceau Royal in for third behind a couple of the market leaders would pay well, and you might include him in an exacta just in case.

There have been plenty of horses placed in this race multiple times, and it pays to remember Special Tiara, who was available at 40/1 when he won having twice been third, largely due to the presence of the seemingly unbeatable Douvan. Sound familiar?

(Not So) Easysland

Cross Country Chase

One thing to bear in mind ahead of Cheltenham is the shock news that Simon Claisse has assessed the going as good in places on all three tracks.

The forecast is for showers at the weekend, but limited rainfall thereafter, and those expecting a bog will need that forecast to change significantly.

Effective

Easysland will be one of the warmer favourites at the meeting given how easily he win last year, but his form has all come on soft or heavy ground, and he did not look anywhere nears as effective on a quicker surface here in November, while it was noticeable how poorly he dealt with the Aintree fence on the course, which was out of bounds last season.

The cross-country course is mostly out of reach of the track’s watering system, and if it doesn’t rain for Easysland, he may be much more vulnerable that the market suggests. Good ground would bring Tiger Roll into the equation, of course….

Saint Calvados

Ryanair Chase

Sometimes a bet is just a bet, and while I’d be going in each-way, I think Saint Calvados is one of the more obvious value plays at the Festival at around 9/1 for the Ryanair.

He ran the race of his life when second to Min in the race a year ago, with A Plus Tard third, and Frodon fourth. That is Grade 1 form to stick by, unlike either of the other championship races over fences at last year’s jamboree, and it hasn’t been mentioned enough.

This season, Saint Calvados jumped like a bunny and travelled like the wrath of whatsisname in the King George before weakening late, proving simultaneously that he is a top-notch chaser and that he doesn’t quite stay three miles.

He unseated Gavin Sheehan in the Cotswold Chase at Sandown when extreme hold-up tactics were tried, but he actually jumped the fence perfectly and lost his footing on the treacherous Esher turf. That is easily forgiven, and a blessing in disguise, as long as connections don’t intend to take up an optimistic engagement in the Gold Cup.

That would be almost unforgivable given his liking for this trip, and the fact that he holds very strong claims on form in this contest. They wouldn’t, surely?

Happy Diva

Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase

The importance of Cheltenham form over fences is hammered home again and again at the Festival, and yet that axiom is being ignored in the inaugural running of the Mares’ Chase.

I’m a fan of Shattered Love, but her JLT win here is set against two lesser efforts, albeit in tougher races, while she is unlikely to get her ground on Friday.

Happy Diva, on the other hand, has plenty in her favour, particularly a course record of B2212F over fences.

She was tanking along when brought down in the 2018 Paddy Power, and would have been placed in the latest renewal of that race but for a rare and rather unlucky fall at the tricky second last.

That is an enviable record, and it ought to be enough to see her make the frame, and perhaps scoop the lot with a bit of luck.