SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE

MULLINS MUST BE TAKEN sERIOUSLY

  • 1.30 Tuesday

    Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Race

    (Grade 1) 2m ½f

  • • Last 12 winners were all aged five or six years. Appreciate It is a seven-year-old.
  • • 11 of the last 12 winners had all run at least four times over hurdles; Shiskhin only three.
  • • Five of the last seven winners were unbeaten in completed hurdle races in Britain and Ireland.
  • • Nine of the last 10 winners won last time out. The exception was Labaik in 2017. Labaik at 25/1 was also the only winner in the last 13 to have had an SP bigger than 12/1 and the only one to have come from a career on the flat.
  • • Six of the last seven winners had all won at least a Grade 3 novice hurdle. Shishkin had only run to listed level.
  • • In the last seven renewals only 13 horses came to the race with a BHA handicap rating of at least 153. Five won and four others were placed. In 2017, Labaik’s year, 147 was the highest BHA rating.
  • • Since 2005 only four winners of the Grade 1 Tolworth run at Sandown in early January have lined up for the Supreme. Two won: Noland (2006) and Summerville Boy in 2018.
  • • Like-A-Butterfly (2001) is the last horse to do the Royal Bond/Supreme double. Eight Royal Bond winners have tried since, four were placed in the Supreme, the most recent being Mengli Khan in 2018.
  • • The winner of the Newbury Betfair Handicap Hurdle has yet to win this.
  • • In the past eight years Willie Mullins has trained four winners and three runners-up. Those four winners were the most fancied Irish trained according to the betting market. Mullins has won this six times going back to Tourist Attraction in 1995.
  • • Champagne Fever (2013) is the only horse since Montelado in 1993 to have completed the Champion Bumper/Supreme double in consecutive years. Nothing that ran in the Bumper has won this since Champagne Fever. Those that have tried recently include Abacadabras (fourth in Bumper/second in Supreme), Ballyandy (first/fourth) and Shaneshill (second/second).
  • • No winner has worn any sort of headgear since Flown in 1992.

    • ARKLE CHASE

    NICKY AND WILLIE SET TO DOMINATE

    2.10 Tuesday

    Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase

    (Grade1) 2m

  • • Last 11 winners won last time out.
  • • Last 10 winners all aged six or seven. Sizing Europe (2010) and Moscow Flyer (2002) the only winners aged older than seven years since 1990.
  • • In the last 11 renewals Willie Mullins has trained four winners, Nicky Henderson three and Henry de Bromhead two.
  • • Nicky Henderson has run eight horses in this with BHA hurdle ratings of at least 145. Four won and three others finished second.
  • • 12 of the last 14 winners had a BHA rating at least 142 over hurdles.
  • • 13 of the last 14 winners had previously raced at Cheltenham. Un De Sceaux is the exception.
  • • None of Paul Nicholls’ last 15 Arkle runners have finished in the first two.
  • • Six of the last nine favourites have won, all at odds-on. Sybillin, 4/5 in 1993, was the last odds-on loser.
  • • Apart from Henry de Bromhead’s two winners, all other winners this century had a prep run after January 1st
  • • Western Warhorse was the only winner this century to have worn any sort of headgear.

    • ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE

    Poor Race FOR IRISH RECENTLY

    2.50 Tuesday

    Ultima Handicap Chase

    (Grade 3) 3m 1f

  • • Beware The Bear (2019) was the only winner older than eight years in the last nine renewals.
  • • Of the last seven winners, four ran in the Ladbroke Chase at Newbury. The other three were novices.
  • • The last six winners had run at Cheltenham that season.
  • • The Conditional (2020) was the only winner of the last eight not to have run at a previous Festival.
  • • All winners this century had previously raced over 3m+.
  • • 11 of the last 13 winners had raced no more than 11 times over fences.
  • • Wichita Lineman (2009) and Coo Star Sivola (2018) are the only winning favourites since 1994.
  • • Six of the last seven winners all had a BHA handicap rating of at least 142. All seven had finished in the first two somewhere since October.
  • • Seven of the last eight winners wore either blinkers or cheekpieces.
  • • Paul Nicholls has trained a total of 23 runners in this. He is yet to win it.
  • • Irish-trained runners are zero from 26 since 2006. Willie Mullins has yet to win this.

    • CHAMPION HURDLE

    Henderson record stands out

    Tuesday 3:30

    Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy

    (Grade 1) 2m ½f

  • • Espoir D’Allen joined Hurricane Fly as the only winners this century not to have run at a previous Festival. Of the others only Epatante and Annie Power (fell) did not finish in the first four at the previous Festival.
  • • 11 of the last 13 winners had already won a Grade 1 hurdle.
  • • 13 of the last 14 had raced no more than 12 times over hurdles.
  • • Since 1984 only six winners were unplaced in any previous run that season. The last six winners were all unbeaten that season.
  • • Espoir D’Allen (2019) and Katchit (2008) are the only five-year-old winners since See You Then (1985). 104 other five-year-olds have been unsuccessful since 1985.
  • • Bula is the only horse to do the Supreme/Champion double in successive years. Both Jezki (2014) and Buveur D’Air (2017) were placed in the Supreme the year before winning this.
  • • Nicky Henderson has won this on eight occasions including five of the last 12.
  • • Only Jezki of the last eight winners didn’t win his previous start.
  • • The last 13 had all won at least six National Hunt races.
  • • Punjabi (2009) is the only winner this century to have been a beaten favourite last time out.

    • CLOSE BROTHERS MARES’ HURDLE

    Concentrate on top three

    4.10 Tuesday

    Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle Race

    (Grade 1) 2m 4f

  • • A race dominated by Willie Mullins. Quevega won six in a row between 2009 and 2014. Since then, Mullins has been successful in three of the last six, winning with Glens Melody, Vroum Vroum Mag and Benie Des Dieux. It would have been four had Benie Des Dieux not fallen at the last in 2019. Glens Melody was destined for second in 2015, had Annie Power also not fallen at the last. All those placed behind Apples Jade (2018), Roksana (2019) and Honeysuckle (2020) were from Closutton.
  • • In the last 12 renewals no horse has finished in the first three wearing any sort of headgear.
  • • Since the retirement of Quevega, three of the last six winners were also been placed in this in a different year. Both Honeysuckle and Roksana had never previously raced before at Cheltenham.
  • • No winner of this began their career on the flat in Britain or Ireland.
  • • The last 12 winners came from the front three in the market.
  • • 34 of the last 36 win and placed horses had already won over at least two miles and four furlongs.
  • • Only one the last six favourites has won; four were beaten at odds-on.
  • • 10 of the last 13 winners had been placed at least in a Grade 2 open hurdle.

  • BOODLES FRED WINTER HURDLE

    Elliott in the money

    4.50 Tuesday

    Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Race

    (Grade 3) 2m ½f

  • • No winner that started its career under National Hunt rules did so in Britain or Ireland.
  • • Band Of Outlaws (2019) became the first favourite to win since Sanctuaire (2010). Six of the last nine winners returned at 25/1 or bigger.
  • • Gordon Elliott has trained three winners, including in 2018 and 2020. Has also had four others placed in the last five renewals.
  • • Willie Mullins has yet to win this.
  • • 10 of the 16 winners raced in this having competed in the minimum three hurdle runs.
  • • No horse carrying a penalty has won since Silk Affair (2009).
  • • No winner had previously run at Cheltenham.
  • • Only two of the 16 winners had previously ran in a handicap.
  • • None of the last eight winners was a filly.
  • • The last seven winners were BHA-rated between 129 and 139.
  • • 14 of the 16 winners had raced in the last 37 days.
  • • Four of the 16 winners wore some sort of headgear. None wore a hood. However, in the last eight renewals, 21 runners have worn hoods. Nine of the 21 finished in the first five and three others fell at the last when well in contention.
  • • Since 2009, Paul Nicholls has saddled a total of 19 runners. Three won and another seven finished in the first five, but he has had none placed in the last four.

    • NATIONAL HUNT CHASE

    Grade 1 form to the fore

  • 5:30 Tuesday

    National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup

    (Amateur Riders’ Novices’) (Grade 2) 3m 6f

  • • Since 2010 this has steadily become a high-class level-weight long-distance novice chase. Stats have been kept to the 10 winners since Poker De Sivola’s success in 2010.
  • • Midnight Prayer is the only winner in the past 10 not to have previously run in a graded chase. Possibly because of this, the Alan King-trained winner is also the only winner in the last eight not to win with a BHA handicap rating of at least 142.
  • • Joshua Newman, who rode Midnight Prayer, is the only non-Irish amateur to win this since 2009.
  • • Since 1946, Jamie Codd is the only jockey to win this on three occasions; he has won three of the last seven. Derek O’Connor and Patrick Mullins have two wins each.
  • • Four of the last 10 winners had the highest official BHA rating; one other top-rated was beaten a neck in second. Tiger Roll was second highest on official ratings when he won at 16/1 in 2017.
  • • Five of the 10 winners (and Discorama, 2nd in 2019) from a total of 21 qualifiers had previously run that season in a Grade 1 chase. Those five winners were all returned at a price not bigger than 8/1.
  • • All 10 winners had finished in the first three in a three-mile chase.
  • • Seven of the 10 winners had run in a chase by October 31st. Although a novice chase, four of the last 10 winners had competed in at least nine chases. Since becoming Grade 2 in 2017, there has been no winner with less than five previous chase runs.
  • • Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have yet to train the winner. Between them, Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins have trained six of the last 10.
  • • No winner this century was a beaten favourite last time out.