Ascot Saturday

13:50 Princess Margaret

Keeneland Stakes (Group 3) 6f

There are several wide-margin winners on show here, and while it’s only fitting that Empress Stakes winner Summer Romance is a short-priced favourite having clocked a much faster time than eight-length maiden winner Ultra Violet had the evening before. If you take those times as gospel, then the Godolphin filly is around eight lengths superior to her rival, although Ultra Violet was making her debut, and can hardly have done more than she did, so is very much one for the visual form analysts rather than the stopwatch aficionados.

Those aren’t the only pair to have impressed recently, however, and the market may have missed the claims of Lingfield all-weather winner Dark Lady, who won an ordinary fillies’ novice just 10 days ago, and impressed with the way she sprinted clear in the final furlong.

Her overall time was not spectacular, but her closing split of sub-22 seconds for the final quarter mile is remarkable, and suggests she is a blacktype filly in the making. She does need to show she can do on a straight turf track, but at 16/1 is well worth the stake money to find out.

14:25 Porsche Handicap 1m

Flashcard was no match for Motakhayyel at Newmarket last time, but that was a misleading contest in which the useful winner was able to set a modest pace, and Flashcard, held up to conserve his stamina at a new trip, was left with too much to do, and shaped very well in the circumstances in beating the others. He is now 6lbs better off with the winner, and that gives him a mathematical right to finish on level terms.

Given he wasn’t seen to such advantage, though, I would be inclined to think he could gain revenge, and he has stepped up a little with each start since being gelded prior to his return. With his stamina now proven, he should be capable of winning handicaps off his current mark, and has the scope to do better again in the second half of the season, being a lengthy sort with some physical development left in him.

15:00 Moet & Chandon

International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) 7f

It often seems impossible to unpick these big-field handicaps, but horses with previous form in similar handicaps at seven furlongs and a mile at the track tend to keep performing, and while the draw always has a say, the nature of such races on a wide, fair track means that the form is very reliable.

Given the prospect of heavy rain this morning, I am happy to gamble on the ground being good-to-soft or perhaps soft at worst, and those who need to hear their hooves rattle are passed over accordingly.

We end up with a familiar list of names when knocking out those who don’t fit some basic criteria, and that list naturally contains the popular picks Raising Sand and Ripp Orf.

The more rain the better for the first-named of that pair, while Ripp Orf probably wouldn’t want it too soft. They are much respected, but two who appeal at bigger prices are Kaeso and Another Batt.

Kaeso, trained by Nigel “Tinky Winky” Tinkler was placed in the Victoria Cup over the course and distance in May and has continued to thrive, looking better than ever when scoring at Doncaster last week, and he picks up just a 3lb penalty for that, so still looks very fairly treated, and is clearly suited by a strong pace and stiff finish at this trip. He’s run a couple of moderate races at York this year, but that speed-favouring track is not ideal for him, and he’s failed to win in five attempts on the Knavesmire.

Another Batt must be excused a poor run on his debut for Richard Hughes at Chester in May, but that’s not hard to do, and he is lower in the weights than when putting up two smashing handicap performances, namely his close fourth in the Balmoral Handicap here in October, and a creditable sixth in the Lincoln where he uncharacteristically blew the start. He has a little to prove on his first start in over two months, but is feasibly handicapped if his low draw does not prove a hindrance.

Recommended:

Dark Lady 13:50 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

Flashcard 14:25 Ascot – 1pt win @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)

Kaeso 15:00 Ascot – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Hills, Paddy Power, BetVictor)