THE weather is busy wreaking its perennial havoc, as it often does at this time of year, with punctured and realigned fixture lists all over the place.
Cheltenham is already gone today, which is a real shame, and Fairyhouse has to pass an inspection this morning at 7.30am.
YR says that there will be around 14mm of rain between midnight and midday on Saturday in Ratoath, and that might be too much.
Conditions were testing yesterday at Doncaster, but they were soft, not heavy, and soft not heavy should be good for Castle Robin, now that he steps up to three miles for the first time in the Grade 2 Albert Bartlett River Don Hurdle.
Charlie Longsdon’s horse was beaten by Emir Sacree in a conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle at Ascot in December, but he was only beaten by just over a length by him.
You can understand why Nicky Henderson’s horse is favourite today. He won well at Ascot, he got out in front and he didn’t see a rival. It was his first run for Nicky Henderson since his arrival from France, and he obviously surprised a few people. He was allowed go off at 11/1, more than twice the price of his better-fancied stable companion Steal A March.
Castle Robin raced just behind the pace that day and, while he couldn’t get to the winner, he hit the final flight and he still stayed on well on the far side to finish second, over a length in front of Dhowin in third, with the first three clear.
Joe Anderson claimed 10lb off the winner that day, so Castle Robin meets him on 11lb better terms today.
Castle Robin could only finish sixth in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton last time, but he ran better than the bare form of the race suggests. He raced prominently that day in a race in which the hold-up horses came to the fore, and he raced around the inside, probably on the worst of the ground.
The five horses who finished in front of him – including Dhowin, whom he had beaten at Ascot – were all further back in the field early on, and four of them raced towards the outside.
His handicap rating of 130 leaves him with 5lb to find with the top-rated horse on official ratings, but he has raced just six times over hurdles, so he has the potential to go higher.
As well as that, the step up to three miles could elicit more improvement. A point-to-point winner for Paul Cashman in November 2019 – and unlucky not to win one the previous April – there is plenty of stamina in his pedigree (he is a half-brother to Fortria Chase winner Arctic Skipper, who won his beginners’ chase over two and a half miles) and he races as if he will improve for stepping up to three miles.
He has a good mix of potential and experience, and that should stand to him today, racing over three miles in testing conditions. He could out-run his odds by a fair way.
Sky Bet Chase
One For The Team could also out-run his odds in the Sky Bet Handicap Chase later on the day. Nick Williams’ horse was a progressive novice hurdler last season, rounding off his campaign by winning a handicap hurdle at Newbury on Betfair Hurdle day off a mark of 130.
He hasn’t won over fences this season in three attempts, but he ran Next Destination to a length in a Grade 2 contest at Newbury on Ladbrokes Trophy weekend in November, and he wasn’t beaten far by Shan Blue in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Chase at Kempton last time.
Good to soft ground at Kempton probably didn’t play to his strengths that day. He should be better suited by soft ground at Doncaster today, and a handicap rating of 141 looks more than fair. He is only seven and he has raced just three times over fences, so he has the potential to go beyond that mark.
Recommended:
Castle Robin, 2.40 Doncaster, 10/1 (generally), 1 point win,
One For The Team, 3.15 Doncaster, 5/1 (generally), 1 point win