Sandown Saturday

1:50 Read Road To Cheltenham At racingtv.com Henry VIII Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 119y

I’m inclined to be against the market leaders in this contest, with Torpillo perhaps a tad overrated given he had the run of the race and a bigger four-year-old allowance when making all on his chasing bow at Warwick. He was a winner off a mark of 137 over hurdles at Chepstow in October, but several of these were better over hurdles, including Summerville Boy, the 2018 Supreme winner.

The latter got back on track when winning on his return to fences at Uttoxeter last month, and should win if he jumps well here, but I was not impressed with him in that department last time, and while he could make a couple of errors and still get home given his class, I don’t like dodgy jumpers at this time of year (wife – please take note).

I’m intrigued that Dan Skelton has decided to run both Nube Negra and Beakstown here, and while the former is the pick on form, I don’t think he’d want the ground to ease any more, and while that’s arguably the case for Beakstown, I have been waiting for him to be given a chance at two miles, and he simply hasn’t lasted home in two starts to date.

There may be physical reasons for that, and he lost a lot of ground by landing on top of the first ditch at Wetherby on debut, but I thought he looked a short runner behind Champ at Newbury last time, and he can make a better first of things dropped to the minimum trip, for all he’s yet to fulfil sky-high hopes for him as a chaser. Connections could aim for a handicap mark, and that would be sensible in a way, but the booking of Robbie Power does not scream “schooling ride” to me.

2:25 Jumeirah Hotels & Resorts December Handicap Hurdle (Listed) 1m 7f 216y

Jedd O’Keeffe is a rare visitor to Sandown, and the Yorkshire handler doesn’t tend to travel far and wide without reasonable hope of success. He has Groveman here, and I was a little bemused to see him priced up at 20/1 in places. Sure he’s out of the weights, but only by a solitary 1lb, and he has solid handicap form from similar marks, finishing 12 lengths clear of a subsequent winner when second to Magna Cartor at Southwell in June.

He’s since run up to his best on the flat, an excellent second in the Cumberland Plate at Carlisle in the summer right up with his best form.

Malaya has been well touted for this, and Paul Nicholls was keen to be with her at 14/1 and bigger earlier in the week – that keenness witnessed by plenty at the HWPA awards on Monday. There is one thing nicking a bit of 16/1 a trier in a race like this, though, but quite another lumping on at 5/1, and the last horse Nicholls was similarly sweet on was Getaway Trump ante-post for the Arkle. That horse isn’t even a chaser any more, which tells a cautionary tale.

15:00 Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 119y

Defi Du Seuil strikes me as a solid wager for all this is a high-quality contest, and I can’t buy into arguments that Politologue will be much sharper for a run behind the selection in the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham last month. The latter’s connections are adamant that he will derive greater benefit from the Cheltenham outing than the winner, but that flies in the face of both logic and history.

Politologue has always run well fresh, while Defi Du Seuil is a notably stuffy animal who has looked very rusty on his return for the past two seasons. Sure, he has had a couple of racecourse gallops this season in order to ensure he was not massively disadvantaged on his return to action, but he still appeals as likely to improve more for the run than the runner-up. There is the matter of the weight differential, of course, but I don’t think that was the difference between the pair last month, and it won’t be again.

Bigger dangers could emerge from elsewhere, and it’s hard to write Un De Sceaux off given he looked almost as good (if not quite as consistent) as ever last season, and Defi Du Seuil will need to be on top form to win. On the other hand, his defeat of Lostintranslation and Vinndication in the Scilly Isles here last season is top-notch form, and I’ve no qualms about his dropping in trip – a turn of foot out of soft ground is his chief asset, and he should use it to good effect here.

13:30 Randox Health Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f 188y

Small stakes here, as it’s not a race I’ve found easy to dissect, but Ben Pauling seems to have discovered what has ailed his horses this autumn (a mineral imbalance by all accounts), and National Hunt Chase winner Le Breuil looks a very big price compared to Mulcahy’s Hill, who was well behind when falling at the second-last fence in the Cheltenham contest. Given the carnage which ensued in that race, you would have to put Le Breuil down as a bombproof jumper, and 25/1 or bigger in a race which tests jumping and stamina is simply too big, even with concerns about the yard’s form.

15:15 Virgin Bet Grand Sefton Handicap Chase 2m 5f 19y

Ultragold has an excellent record over track and trip, having won the Topham at the Grand National meeting twice, as well as finishing second in this race two years ago, and he was third to Walk In The Mill in the Becher here last year despite not convincing with his stamina over the longer trip. He was never in the hunt under a change of tactics in the Grand National itself, but he should revert to his usual run style here, and the Tizzard horses are still running really well, so there is no reason to think he won’t give his running.

Given he’s only 1lb higher than his 2018 Topham win, he looks a very tempting option here, and a poor run at Ascot under a conditional rider on his return was surely just a stepping-stone to this more obvious target.

Recommended:

Beakstown 1:50 Sandown – 1pt win @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)

Groveman 2:25 Sandow – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Hills, BetVictor – 4 places)

Le Breuil 1:30 Aintree – 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 (Hills, BetVictor, Paddy Power – 5 places)

Ultragold 3:15 Aintree – 1pt e/w @ 6/1 (SkyBet, Hills, BetVictor – 5 places)