SAY what you like about the Derby being an event in decline in the sporting public’s consciousness, but this year’s 19-runner contest has thrown up an intriguing race for race fans.
With no horse in the field having run more than five times, it’s not a race to pull in viewers through familiarity with the horse, as you would with the feature races over jumps.
But for those of us who are engaged in racing history and pedigrees, there are so many angles to ponder in where to place your faith. It’s a great conundrum.
Race form tells one thing - Ruling Court is the best horse.
Breeding tells you another - Delacroix is not bred to stay
The draw tells you another – only one horse has won in 58 years from a 19 draw (Bye bye The Lion In Winter. And no horse has won from stall 16 (bye bye Pride Of Arras).
Past history tells you even Aidan O’Brien and Charlie Appleby might not know which is best of their runners. Aidan has won with Ruler Of The World (7/1), Wings Of Eagles (40/1), Anthony Van Dyck (13/20, Serpentine (25/1) when he had better fancied runners and Adayar’s win for Appleby was with the longest priced of his three runners in 2021.
And then in recent years, we might have the advantage of having striding data to add to the mix. Both of the data gathering experts, Simon Rowlands and Kevin Blake, have come to the conclusion that none of Delacroix, Ruling Court or The Lion In Winter can win, based on what the striding data indicates by assessing previous winners, and both give the thumbs up to Pride Of Arras and then Lambourn as their main fancies.
Best to the best
If you want the Derby winner to abide by the old ‘best to the best’, or as Tesio’s breed defining race, Ruling Court cost Godolphin €2,300,000 just over a year ago at the Arqana May Breeze-Up in May 2024.
The Lion In Winter cost M.V. Magnier €375,000 at the Goffs Orby Book 1 in September 2023.
Ah, but Al Wasl Storm cost Ahmad Alshaikh €7,000 as a Tattersalls Ireland November NH Foal Sale in 2022.
He is the first foal out of an unraced daughter of Martaline – he’d not even pass current National Hunt criteria so his very presence in the field raises a smile.
But all the established breeding establishments are to the fore in this year’s race, Godolphin, Coolmore, the Aga Khan and Juddmonte, with the two latter-day arrivals to the elite racing scene, Amo and Wathnan, also lining up this year.
So, the big question, who wins? There is rain around which could put a spanner in the works, though Friday’s going looked fine. For that reason, Tennessee Stud is in the each-way selection at his current odds. He was campaigned at a high level, and has form on soft ground.
Key stage
Angus McNae’s column this week reminds us that pace at the key stage, two furlongs out, is a key. It’s where the dividing line occurs between those being asked to quicken and those coming off the bridle and the two can merge into creating trouble in running.
One of the renowned race analysts of our times, Nick Mordin, was convinced a horse performed to its best at the outer ranges of his stamina as he could be outpaced at the shorter ranges.
Delacroix has shown he has that ability to quicken, Ruling Court had it at Newmarket and so did Pride Of Arras at York.
The forecast rain might not suit the first two in the market.
The market has moved for and against The Lion In Winter all spring.
Now that he has made the line-up, the 7/1 available on Friday looks very big?
Surely a son of Sea The Stars from a mare who won over a mile and a half on soft ground will stay? I have doubts that Delacroix will, even if he is the Moore selected. I’m keeping the faith that Colin Keane can deliver the colt - who was the highest rated of these at two - with a wide and late swoop to success.
TAKE a few days off last week and the most debated event of the racing summer occurred, and in the first race on an evening at Wexford, no less!
No last flight race footage has been as widely shared and scrutinised as the unseat of Philip Byrnes when looking like he was going to win the Wexford Claiming Hurdle on Redwood Queen, leaving the the 1/3 favourite Beacon Edge to win. Front, back, side on, racing photographer photos, there were abundant angles to view.
It’s fair to say that it did not look good, that any online poll would surely be very one-sided in not favouring an accidental unseat. Betting patterns also suggested Beacon Edge had more confidence behind him on the day than Redwood Queen.
Philip Byrnes is entitled to the presumption of innocence until something is proven.
There were those who jumped to the defence of the rider in suggesting no rider would risk jumping of a running horse but really the question should be how much would need to be at stake for a rider to take the risk in parting company from his horse by his own choice?
We’ve seen riders bail out from runaway horses if it looked too dangerous to continue.
The most unsatisfactory element was the omission at the time, on the track in gathering all the facts to help form an opinion. The necessary ‘ground work’ was missed here by the raceday stewards.
The job of any ‘policing’ authority, at the scene of any incident, is to gather evidence, get statements from those closest to the event. If nothing is decided on the day or the facts used in any subsequent investigation, they still need to be recorded.
This is also strange as the Ted Walsh appeal the previous week was upheld on the grounds that the trainer ‘was not afforded the opportunity to state his case on the day through his authorised representative’.
So, would logic not direct you to, this time, cover every base, giving everyone the opportunity to state anything that might not have been obvious to the eye, about this incident, since the immediate reaction online was suspicions over how the rider came off?
The online poll (did he fall or did he jump) might have been biased in one direction but on the lack of recorded evidence, I can see loopholes impacting any further inquiry.