Champion Hurdle

THE New Lion is favourite at the time of writing but his CV out of novice company reads one crashing fall and a narrow win over Nemean Lion in receipt of weight.

That is simply not Champion Hurdle form, and even his standout success, a defeat of The Yellow Clay at Cheltenham 12 months ago, hasn’t aged as well as expected and he looks vulnerable.

Golden Ace would have been second in this last year had State Man survived a last-flight blunder, and she was left clear by The New Lion’s fall in the Fighting Fifth.

When she won the Dawn Run here in 2024, she was receiving 5lb from the runner-up, so she has a bit to find on balance, although her consistency stands to her all the same.

Brighterdaysahead emerged as the best mare at the weights when second to Golden Ace in the Dawn Run, so the argument that she doesn’t handle Cheltenham is nonsense.

She ran poorly in the Champion last year but was also below form at Punchestown, and her massive run in the December Hurdle at Leopardstown earlier last season might be the reason for her tame efforts in the spring.

She beat State Man 31½ lengths at Leopardstown having gone hard with pacemaker King Of Kingsfield from the start. That was a huge performance – to put it in context, her Timefigure of 166 was the highest given by Timeform to a mare over jumps, exceeding the 164 given to Honeysuckle in the 2022 Champion Hurdle and the 162 allotted to Annie Power for her Champion Hurdle win – and she took longer to recover than expected.

She has returned refreshed, though, finishing a length behind Lossiemouth at Christmas before beating her in the Irish Champion Hurdle when ridden with a little more enterprise.

This is a remarkably good mare, but it’s taken connections a while to work her out. She is in the mould of a Dawn Run in that she can maintain a very strong gallop but lacks a turn of foot, so needs to be ridden on the gallop. If she sits behind Lossiemouth, she is vulnerable to that one’s turn of foot, and her best chance of winning is by being the one to press on first at the top of the hill.

Jack Kennedy has enough experience of her here to know exactly what to do, and it’s a positive that she seems equally adept on good or heavy ground.

Lossiemouth will be running in the right race if coming here as expected and she’s a slightly easier ride than Brighterdaysahead in that she can find a turn of foot when required and is as effective at two miles as she is over the two and a half she won the Mares’ Hurdle over 12 months ago.

She also gives her running whether she seems in form or not; there were negative signs before halfway at Leopardstown last time but she kept digging deep to finish second.

I can see her usurping favouritism and she will take advantage if Brighterdaysahead can’t repeat her latest performance for whatever reason.

1. BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD

2. Lossiemouth

3. Golden Ace

Queen Mother Champion Chase

AFTER Barry Connell’s talk of the Clarence House being a “Mickey Mouse race”, I think it’s a shame that Marine Nationale Disney run here, but it does seem to leave the way clear for Dublin Chase hero Majborough to cement his reputation.

Held back by erratic jumping in the Arkle last year, he’s matured notably this term, following a creditable third to Solness at Christmas with a hugely improved performance at the DRF, jumping superbly and galloping all over his rivals to register a 19-length verdict over Marine Nationale, with Found A Fifty and Solness - both of whom had beaten him earlier in the season - further behind.

The question is whether he can repeat that at Cheltenham, and I think too much has been made of his Arkle failure, which was a narrow one on any case, but came from an immature five-year-old whose task was much harder than it was portrayed at the time.

He’s now taken the leap forward required and while not yet bombproof over fences, is helped enormously by this race cutting up quite badly, which leaves him much less to beat than might have been expected.

L’Eau Du Sud impressed when beating Jonbon in the Shloer Chase here in November and tends to ruin best fresh, so an absence since below his best behind Il Etait Temps and Jonbon in the Tingle Creek is a positive.

I’d fancy him to beat the former at this track under similar conditions, but his last three wins have come on soft or heavy ground and I think he’ll come up a little short, having also been behind Majborough in the Arkle last season.

Il Etait Temps will appreciate the drying ground at Cheltenham and he does seem at his best on spring ground these days, but three visits to Cheltenham have seen him run below his best and while he has got some exceptionally strong form, his fall at Ascot last time was an ugly one and it would be a great training performance to have him at the level required given that negative experience.

Solness hasn’t fired on previous visits to the UK but he is at his best when dominating on a good or yielding ground and didn’t handle the conditions when well beaten in the Dublin Chase.

He missed the kick in this last year and couldn’t find a rhythm as a result, but he may find it easier to lead in a small field here and is capable of surprising a few if able to do so.

1. MAJBOROUGH

2. Solness

3. L’Eau Du Sud

Stayers’ Hurdle

TEAHUPOO is back for more having won this race once and finished second twice, while he was unplaced in the 2022 Champion Hurdle over an inadequate two miles.

He used to be an easy horse to get a handle on, needing a break between races and soft or heavy ground, but in the last two years he’s run three times on ground faster than soft and off a break of less than eight weeks and has won all three times, suggesting he’s a more rounded performer these days. He probably didn’t do enough to draw the finish out of Bob Olinger last year but ran up to his best in second.

His full Grade 1 record since the start of the 2022/23 season reads 13411122111, and while not unbeatable, he’s tremendously consistent and looked better than ever when beating Bob Olinger in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown on his latest start on supposedly unsuitable good ground. Staying hurdlers tend to mature a little later so, although he’s been at the top for a while, he may have even more to offer, and he sets the bar pretty high in any case.

Bob Olinger isn’t too old to retain his crown, for all age must be a slight concern, but defeat in a race that should have suited him better than Teahupoo last time does raise a red flag, and he was undoubtedly helped by a false pace last year, with his main strength as a staying hurdler being his turn of foot. He should get the ground to suit, but an end-to-end gallop would be a worry.

Impose Toi won the Grade 1 Long Walk in December and was giving the winner 6lb when 2nd to Ma Shantou in the Cleeve last time. He’s improved markedly this season, although he has hinted that a stiff three miles may just stretch his stamina, weakening late on over the Stayers’ course and distance last time.

Honesty Policy was closing in on Impose Toi in the Long Walk and looked a progressive young stayer when scoring at Aintree last April.

He’s lightly raced and yet to run at Cheltenham but has the right blend of tactical speed and stamina required for this.

1. TEAHUPOO

2. Honesty Policy

3. Impose Toi

Ryanair Chase

THE hardest race to predict as the superstars in the division are likely to be tempted by either the Champion Chase or Gold Cup.

That’s the obvious worry for Fact To File after his Irish Gold Cup win, but he absolutely bolted up in this race last year and would be impossible to oppose in a weaker renewal.

If he was mine, he (along with Gaelic Warrior) would go to the Gold Cup, but connections are realists, and I think the desire to have any kind of Grade 1 win at Cheltenham will see him run here rather than on Friday.

If Fact To File runs, then Gaelic Warrior surely won’t, and that makes the place for places look open. Henry de Bromhead hates the winter more than I do, but his horses always seem to bloom in March, and previous winner Envoi Allen appealed to me a potential value, but connections are heading to the Gold Cup by all accounts for what will be the gelding’s final race.

De Bromhead trained Heart Wood to be a fine second in this last year, and it’s perhaps significant he relies on the eight-year-old, who has won two from three this season at a less rarefied level.

Banbridge’s flop in the Gold Cup was not trip related, with his beaten a long way out, but he’s shown his best form at up to a sharp three miles and I’d be disappointed if he didn’t come here, which would give him a fine chance of winning.

He was back to his best when forcing a photo in the King George and Joseph O’Brien doesn’t waste too many bullets at Cheltenham. He’s simply too classy to leave out of the equation.

1. FACT TO FILE

2. Banbridge

3. Heart Wood

Gold Cup

The Gold Cup looks open. Inothewayurthinkin would have a huge chance on last season’s win in this race, but past winners have a mixed record and while some wise guys fancy him to return to form, I’ve been massively disappointed by his form since he beat Galopin Des Champs, and a heavy fall in the Irish Gold Cup represents a poor prep.

It’s taken me a while to warm to The Jukebox Man, but he impressed in the King George despite looking ill-served by Kempton and he ran a blinder on his previous run here, when unlucky not to win the Albert Bartlett in 2024.

He’s the least exposed in the field and is likely to progress again, so looks the value over Jango Baie, who was only inches behind him at Kempton but doesn’t strike me as such a strong stayer, or indeed, as reliable a jumper.

Gaelic Warrior has pretty much proven his stamina and ran well in both the King George and the Irish Gold Cup. He has run well on the Old Course here despite his old tendency of jumping right, and the stiffer New Course should be in favour of a gelding who is still only eight years old.

Spillane’s Tower won the Cotswold Chase here in January and is lightly raced since a pair of Grade 1 wins at the end of his novice campaign.

He’s a tough, likeable type whose trainer is rightly popular with the more knowledgeable racegoers, and while he’s got only a fair chance here, a victory would be tremendous for grass-roots racing, and I’ll be cheering if he leads over the last.

1. THE JUKEBOX MAN

2. Gaelic Warrior

3. Spillane’s Tower